Citizens reiterated a Market Perform rating on Booking Holdings shares, noting a mix of resilient fundamentals and a plausible long-term structural threat from artificial intelligence. The stock was trading at $4,269.99, having recovered marginally from a 52-week low of $4,020.54 after a 23.25% decline across the past six months.
In its analysis, Citizens highlighted Booking Holdings' exposure to independent and boutique hotels as a partial bulwark against potential disintermediation linked to AI-powered platforms. The note pointed to company data showing gross profit margins of 86.99%, which Citizens described as evidence of Booking's entrenched position in the online travel market despite recent weakness in the share price.
At the same time, the firm outlined a credible pathway by which AI could erode some of Booking's advantages. Citizens said that if AI services evolve into the primary entry point for consumers planning travel and compress the discovery and purchase funnel into a single conversational interface, Booking's direct traffic and search-arbitrage strengths could come under pressure.
Citizens further explained that such a shift could push online travel agencies lower in the value chain and open the door for competing infrastructure providers to introduce alternative solutions. Specifically, the note identified global distribution systems (GDS), central reservation systems (CRS), property management systems (PMS), and revenue management systems (RMS) as potential sources of competition that might surface competing offers and exert pressure on take rates.
The firm emphasized that it does not expect an immediate material impact from these dynamics, but regards the threat as a credible long-term structural risk to the OTA model.
Recent financials
Booking Holdings reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $48.80, beating estimates by $0.61. Quarterly revenue totaled $6.35 billion versus a consensus forecast of $6.12 billion.
The company recorded a 9% increase in room nights compared to the same period in 2024. Gross bookings rose 16% year-over-year to $43 billion, or roughly 11% on a constant currency basis. Revenue for the quarter increased 16% from the prior year, a gain Citizens noted was aided by favorable currency movements.
Implications
- Booking's high gross margins and hotel mix provide short-term resilience for the business and its cash flow profile.
- Emerging AI interfaces represent a plausible long-term threat to traffic and monetization models used by online travel agencies.
- Infrastructure and software providers serving travel distribution could see renewed opportunity if OTAs are displaced further down the value chain.
Citizens' stance therefore blends recognition of current operational strength with caution about a potential structural change in how consumers start and complete travel transactions.