Citizens trimmed its price target for Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) to $160.00 from $200.00 on Thursday, but the firm kept a Market Outperform rating following the e-commerce platform's fourth-quarter 2025 results. The adjustment accompanies a stock that is trading at $118.71 and carrying a very high price-to-earnings ratio of 135.36, even as the share price has fallen 26.25% year-to-date. InvestingPro analysis cited in the results overview indicates the shares are trading near their Fair Value.
Shopify posted what Citizens described as solid quarterly metrics. Gross merchandise volume - GMV - rose 29% year-over-year on a like-for-like basis excluding foreign exchange effects, a pace that represents a one percentage point slowdown from the third quarter of 2025. The company outperformed consensus expectations on GMV by 2% for the quarter.
Profitability also showed improvement. Shopify reported a GAAP operating margin of 17.2% for the period, up 70 basis points year-over-year, underscoring the company's ability to drive faster GMV and revenue growth while expanding margins. Over the last twelve months the company generated $11.56 billion in revenue, which represents 30.14% growth.
Citizens highlighted geographic and product-mix signals from the quarter. Nearly half of the incremental GMV in the fourth quarter came from markets outside North America, and roughly half of Shopify's merchant base is now located outside North America. The firm framed those trends as reinforcing Shopify's role as a global market share gainer and quoted the company as being "the de facto platform for starting an eCommerce business." Citizens additionally noted continued progress across enterprise, B2B, and offline segments.
On balance-sheet measures, InvestingPro data referenced alongside the report points to strong liquidity and limited leverage. Shopify's current ratio stood at 5.96, and the profile was described as carrying minimal debt.
Market participants have reacted with a range of analyst responses following the quarterly release. Mizuho upgraded Shopify to Outperform and kept a $150.00 price target, citing the company's execution and momentum across its growth initiatives. Stifel revised its price target to $115.00 while retaining a Hold rating, pointing to a robust quarterly report that emphasized enterprise expansion and international growth.
DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating with a $195.00 target, noting Shopify's 31% year-over-year growth in 2025 and management's optimistic outlook for 2026. Truist Securities lowered its price target to $110.00, attributing the move to valuation concerns despite acknowledging the company's strong fundamentals. Canaccord Genuity trimmed its price target to $165.00 while maintaining a Buy rating and cited Shopify's momentum and guidance for the first quarter.
These divergent analyst positions underscore differing views on how to balance Shopify's strong operating performance and geographic expansion with current valuation metrics and investor expectations. The mix of upgrades, downgrades, target cuts, and reiterations reflects a market still weighing growth and margin progress against the company's elevated P/E and recent share-price weakness.
Summary of key financial metrics noted in the report and accompanying analyst commentary:
- GMV growth (ex-FX): 29% year-over-year; 1 percentage point deceleration versus Q3 2025.
- GMV versus consensus: 2% above estimates.
- GAAP operating margin: 17.2%, up 70 basis points year-over-year.
- Revenue (last twelve months): $11.56 billion, up 30.14%.
- Balance sheet indicators: current ratio 5.96; minimal debt.
Investors and market-watchers will be monitoring how the company sustains GMV momentum, converts international expansion into durable revenue and margin gains, and how the stock's lofty P/E is reconciled with future growth expectations.