Citi Research has moved Amundi from a "buy" rating to "neutral," citing a marked rerating of the shares that has largely closed the valuation discount to European peers. The bank said the improved share performance leaves relatively little room for further upside, even though the groups underlying business trends remain intact.
Amundi closed at 79.15 on Feb. 5, after a rise of more than 20% over the prior three months and almost 30% since the company reported third-quarter 2025 results. Citi noted that this recent strength has brought Amundi broadly into line with traditional European asset managers and well ahead of the wider European diversified financials sector, which it described as flat over the same interval.
On valuation metrics, Citi said Amundi now trades at roughly 10.5-11x forecast 2027-2028 earnings, which sits near the groups long-term average multiple. The banks assessment is that while this level is not expensive, it no longer represents a cheap entry point given a subdued headline growth profile. Citi identified the compression of the valuation discount versus peers as the central reason for the downgrade.
Earnings and growth outlook
Citi said it remains reassured by Amundis growth and earnings trajectory following the groups full-year 2025 results and noted that its earnings estimates stay broadly aligned with company-collected consensus. The bank projects adjusted profit before tax of 1.90 billion in 2026 and 1.96 billion in 2027. It forecasts net income of 1.42 billion in 2026 and 1.52 billion in 2027, with diluted earnings per share of 6.91 and 7.52, respectively.
Citi said its modelling continues to show solid underlying expansion in the core business once joint ventures and partnership-related outflows are excluded. For the core segment, the bank expects average net inflows of 3.5% per year over 2026-2028, which it said would translate into roughly a 9% compound annual growth rate in earnings for that part of the business.
At the headline level, growth looks slower because Citi assumes the full loss of 86 billion of UniCredit assets. That reduction in assets under management trims average net flows to about 2% per year and depresses overall earnings growth to around 2% over the period, Citi said.
Catalysts and limitations
Citi noted that several previously highlighted positives have already been realised, including an upsized share buyback and drivers associated with the full-year 2025 performance. The bank continues to see a potential one-off catalyst in the planned initial public offering of SBI Fund Management and a related stake sell-down, which it expects by the end of the first half of 2026.
However, Citi stressed that such a transaction would be a one-off event and that visibility on further upside from mergers, acquisitions or new mandates is limited. That constrained visibility on durable new drivers was cited as a factor in pulling forward the downgrade.
Price target and total return
Following the rating change, Citi lifted its target price to 84.50 from 78.10. The firm said this increase reflects a broader sector re-rating rather than adjustments to its earnings forecasts. The revised target implies an expected share price return of 6.8%. When combined with an anticipated dividend yield of 5.4%, Citi calculated a total expected return of 12.1%.
Citi also noted Amundis market capitalisation was 16.3 billion, or about $19.3 billion, at the time of the report.
In sum, Citis downgrade signals that the recent rally has eroded the valuation margin investors previously enjoyed, even as the bank retains a constructive view on the companys underlying cash generation and profitability trajectory. The firm placed emphasis on the need for clearer, recurring growth drivers beyond one-off transactions to justify a return to a buy stance.