Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight recommendation on Goosehead Insurance Inc. and left its price target at $111.00, a level that implies substantial upside from the stock's then-current market price of $45.81. The firm described the most recent quarter as broadly in line with expectations and without any material negative surprises.
The company provided 2026 growth guidance spanning a wide range - 10% to 19% - compared with a FactSet consensus point of 19%. This guidance follows a period in which Goosehead delivered 25% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months. Cantor Fitzgerald interprets the guidance as evidence that certain tailwinds, specifically homeowners' capital returning to the market, may take longer to translate into stronger results than some investors anticipated.
Because of that timing, consensus estimates are likely to remain relatively static over the next several quarters, Cantor Fitzgerald says, noting that the firm expects margin expansion to be deferred until 2027. The broker views the investment case for the stock as a medium-term rerating story: shares are currently trading at about 23 times next-twelve-months earnings per share, a multiple Cantor sees as consistent with upside if execution and market dynamics improve.
Supporting that assessment, InvestingPro analysis referenced by Cantor Fitzgerald shows Goosehead trading at a relatively low price-to-earnings ratio given near-term earnings growth expectations, producing a reported PEG ratio of 0.61. The stock has nonetheless declined sharply over the past year, falling nearly 57% from prior levels.
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted business-model dynamics that could benefit Goosehead as personal lines pricing eases: improving client retention and rising commission rates stand out as structural advantages that should support the franchise if the personal lines environment continues to soften.
InvestingPro's fair value framework was cited as indicating the stock may be undervalued, with some analyst targets reaching as high as $125. The analysis shows a range of opinions in the sell-side community and points to valuation upside under certain scenarios, while also acknowledging near-term pressures.
On the results front, Goosehead reported fourth-quarter revenue of $105.3 million, topping analyst estimates of $99.34 million and representing a 12% increase year over year. The company missed on earnings per share, reporting $0.48 versus the $0.57 consensus estimate.
Broker responses to the quarterly report were varied. Piper Sandler upgraded its rating on Goosehead to Overweight from Neutral and kept a $69.00 price target in place. By contrast, Truist Securities trimmed its price target to $58 from $72, citing expectations for modest EBITDA margin compression. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered its target to $85 from $95, pointing to fiscal 2026 guidance midpoints that were slightly below expectations. Citizens reduced its price target to $125 from $140 but retained a Market Outperform rating, emphasizing the company’s potential for strong growth in a large market.
These divergent moves among analysts underscore a broader split in outlook: some see the company positioned to gain from a softer personal lines market and view current valuation as an opportunity, while others are focused on near-term margin pressure and conservative guidance that could constrain upside in the near term.
Overall, the Cantor Fitzgerald call frames Goosehead as a candidate for medium-term rerating if the company can convert revenue momentum and favorable commission dynamics into meaningful margin recovery beyond the guidance window. In the near term, however, guidance and margin timing are likely to keep consensus models relatively subdued.