Overview
Cantor Fitzgerald has reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $12.00 price target on Aurora Innovation Inc (NASDAQ:AUR), a stance grounded in the firm’s view of Aurora’s operational traction in autonomous long-haul trucking. The $12.00 target represents nearly 200% upside relative to the stock’s present price of $4.06.
Milestones and scale
According to the research note, Aurora has achieved over 4.5 million autonomous cumulative miles. That total includes more than 250,000 fully driverless miles logged since the company began commercial operations in late April. Cantor Fitzgerald characterizes these milestones as positioning Aurora among the leaders in self-driving truck deployments.
Revenue and fleet size
Despite the mileage milestones, Aurora’s revenue remains small. The company recorded only $2 million in revenue over the last twelve months. Fleet expansion plans are aggressive: management expects to operate more than 200 driverless trucks by year-end 2026, up from a fleet of 10 trucks as of December. Cantor Fitzgerald’s earlier modeling had estimated 207 trucks for fiscal 2026, a figure that aligns closely with Aurora’s stated aim.
Profitability and cash flow targets
Management has set targets to reach breakeven gross margins by the end of fiscal 2026 and to achieve positive free cash flow in fiscal 2028. Cantor Fitzgerald describes those targets as encouraging for the company’s path toward sustainable unit economics.
Partnerships and hardware
The firm highlighted Aurora’s exclusive deal with Continental to scale hardware for high-volume installation. Production under that partnership is targeted to start in 2027, a development Cantor Fitzgerald views as a potential material catalyst for the business.
Recent quarter and other analyst views
Aurora reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that were mixed. The company posted earnings per share of -$0.11, narrowly better than the -$0.12 forecast, representing an EPS surprise of 8.33%. Revenue for the quarter was $1 million, well below the expected $1.69 million, a revenue surprise of -40.83%. Separately, Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating and a $15.00 price target on the company, citing what it called material progress in expanding operating domains and routes. Oppenheimer also noted that Aurora’s next-generation hardware is expected to be available in the third quarter of 2026.
Valuation note
While Cantor Fitzgerald’s outlook emphasizes operational progress and partnership-driven scale, another market signal noted alongside the research is a valuation caution: InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock may be overvalued at current market levels given the company’s stated revenue and profitability runway.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Autonomous vehicle technology and commercial trucking operations are central to the story, with implications for hardware suppliers and fleet operators.
- Capital markets and equity investors are watching milestones and unit economics as drivers of future valuation.