Cantor Fitzgerald has maintained a Neutral rating on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for February 12. The stock is trading at $14.80, placing Rivian's market capitalization at $18.14 billion.
The firm's note highlighted Rivian's planned Autonomy+ subscription service as a potentially meaningful commercial initiative. Autonomy+ will be offered either as a single $2,500 purchase or a $49.99 monthly subscription, a price point Cantor Fitzgerald says is materially lower than Tesla's Full Self-Driving option, which is roughly $8,000 as a one-time fee or $99 per month. The research house expects that this more affordable pricing could spur customer demand and assist Rivian in taking additional market share.
Cantor Fitzgerald described the rollout of autonomous driving capabilities as phased. The integration of LiDAR technology is expected in the third quarter of 2026, following the planned launch of the R2 vehicle. The firm singled out the R2 launch, set for the first half of 2026, as "the most material catalyst this year." It also noted that Rivian could reveal its fiscal 2026 vehicle delivery guidance on the upcoming earnings call; current consensus stands at 64,134 vehicles.
Analysts covering Rivian are projecting continued financial strain in the near term. Visible Alpha consensus estimates anticipate fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1,278 million, a gross margin of roughly 2%, and an adjusted EBITDA loss near $568 million. These projections mirror the company's historical margin difficulties: InvestingPro data shows a gross profit margin of 3.32% over the trailing twelve months.
Despite these profitability headwinds, Rivian has recorded top-line growth. Revenue has expanded by 28.21% over the last twelve months, underscoring demand growth even as per-unit profitability remains constrained. Price targets among analysts span a wide range, from $10 to $25, reflecting divergent views on the company's path to sustainable margins and the execution risks tied to new products and technologies.
Recent corporate moves and operational developments add texture to Rivian's near-term story. The company has named Azam Akhtar as its new chief financial officer, with the appointment taking effect on March 1. Akhtar brings more than a decade of experience from General Motors. Separately, Greg Revelle has been appointed chief customer officer and will be responsible for Rivian's go-to-market strategy.
On the research front, the stock has seen downgrades: UBS reduced its rating from Neutral to Sell while increasing its price target to $15.00, and Wolfe Research cut its rating to Underperform, citing concerns about cash burn. These actions underline the mixed analyst sentiment that has produced the broad range of price targets.
Operationally, Rivian has initiated a recall affecting over 19,000 R1S and R1T vehicles in the United States due to an assembly problem involving the rear toe link. The recall will involve replacing the rear toe-link bolts at no cost to owners, according to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
The coming earnings release will give investors updated metrics on revenue, margins and potentially vehicle delivery guidance for fiscal 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald's Neutral stance reflects a balance between market opportunities created by competitively priced software offerings and substantial near-term profitability and execution risks. With mixed analyst ratings and operational announcements in recent weeks, market participants will likely scrutinize management's commentary around Autonomy+, the R2 launch timeline and cash burn dynamics when the company reports.