Summary
Cantor Fitzgerald increased its price target on Rivian Automotive Inc to $18.00 from $15.00, while retaining a Neutral rating on the electric-vehicle maker. The revised target lies between the stock's recent trading price of $16.73 and the higher end of analyst targets near $25. Rivian shares have fallen 28.97% year-to-date despite the company posting quarterly results that topped consensus estimates.
Earnings and margins
Rivian's fourth-quarter performance surprised analysts positively on multiple fronts versus Visible Alpha consensus expectations. The company reported a GAAP gross margin of 9%, well above the 2% consensus, and delivered stronger-than-expected top-line and bottom-line figures. The quarterly margin improvement stands out relative to the company's trailing twelve-month gross profit margin of 3.32%, a figure described in InvestingPro data as reflective of generally weak gross profit margins.
On the bottom-line metric, Rivian posted earnings per share of -$0.70, slightly better than the -$0.71 expected, representing a 1.41% positive surprise. Revenue for the quarter reached $1.29 billion, topping the $1.27 billion consensus for a 1.57% surprise.
Guidance and production outlook
For fiscal 2026, Rivian set a delivery range of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, a figure that includes Electric Delivery Van (EDV) deliveries and aligns with Visible Alpha estimates of roughly 64,000 units. Management reiterated that initial R2 deliveries remain on track for the second quarter of 2026. The company is targeting approximately 10,000 vehicle deliveries in each of the first and second quarters of 2026, with a material ramp anticipated in the second half of the year.
Cantor Fitzgerald's view is that R1 and EDV volumes should be roughly flat year-over-year, with R2 volumes supplying the incremental growth in total deliveries.
Balance sheet and financial health
Although Rivian has not recorded a profit over the last twelve months, the company retains liquidity cushion, with a current ratio of 2.71 indicating that short-term assets exceed short-term liabilities. InvestingPro assigns Rivian an overall Financial Health score of "FAIR," and lists a market capitalization of $17.16 billion.
Catalysts and strategic positioning
Cantor Fitzgerald singled out the R2 launch as a material catalyst, citing the model's more competitive price point as likely to lift customer demand. The research team also emphasized Rivian's approach to AI and autonomy as potential advantages that could enhance demand, improve unit economics, reduce the impact of EV tax credit removal, and enable the company to capture market share in North America.
Other analyst action
In a separate development, Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on Rivian from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $16.00 to $23.00. Analyst Edison Yu at Deutsche Bank pointed to early signs of improving company prospects and described the 2026 outlook as de-risked by reasonable volume expectations and better vehicle cost dynamics. Deutsche Bank also indicated the R2 launch is on track for the second quarter of 2026.
Context for investors
Despite the quarter's positive surprises and the firming guidance, InvestingPro data flags Rivian's Fair Value as suggesting the stock is slightly overvalued at current levels. The company recorded 28.21% revenue growth over the last twelve months, a pace that management and analysts will be watching as R2 volumes come online and as unit economics evolve.
Investors looking for deeper, model-driven assessment can consult the firm's Pro Research Report and related ProTips for detailed metrics and scenario analysis.
Key takeaways
- Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $18 while keeping a Neutral view after Rivian beat consensus on revenue, gross margin and EPS for the quarter.
- Rivian reported a GAAP gross margin of 9% versus a 2% consensus and delivered modest EPS and revenue beats.
- Management outlined a fiscal 2026 delivery range of 62,000-67,000 vehicles, with R2 launches expected to drive second-half growth and initial R2 deliveries on track for Q2 2026.
Market reaction and outlook
The price-target change places Cantor Fitzgerald's valuation below the high end of analyst targets but above the current share price. How effectively Rivian translates R2 production and AI/autonomy initiatives into improved unit economics and sustained cash generation will be central to whether the company's valuation and financial health metrics move materially.