Cantor Fitzgerald has upgraded Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) to Overweight from Neutral and lifted its price target to $275 from $170, citing a combination of near-term earnings upside and strategic moves that it says strengthen the company’s market position.
The research house highlighted a projected first-half 2026 revenue range of $575 million to $600 million for the semiconductor process control equipment maker, compared with consensus estimates of $554 million. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Matthew Prisco conveyed expectations that Onto Innovation will not only beat those near-term numbers but also raise guidance when it reports results on February 19, two days from now.
Prisco models substantial upside to calendar-year earnings per share, targeting roughly $7.00 or more for 2026 and $9.25 or more for 2027. Those figures stand above consensus estimates of $6.23 for 2026 and $7.66 for 2027. For context, the company reported diluted EPS of $3.55 over the last twelve months, and analysts are forecasting $4.93 for fiscal year 2025.
Drivers cited by Cantor Fitzgerald
- Product messaging and customer cadence: Positive commentary around the Dragonfly G5 product is a factor in the upgrade, with a potential decision from TSMC likely in the second quarter.
- Relative share performance: Since Cantor Fitzgerald identified Onto Innovation as a tactical long in its 2026 preview, the stock has climbed 37%, versus a 17% rise for the SOX index and a 2% uptick for the S&P 500.
- Valuation context: Onto Innovation is trading at 33 times next-twelve-months consensus EPS, compared with multiples of 44 times for Camtek, 47 times for Nova and 34 times for KLA. Cantor’s $275 target is framed as 30 times calendar year 2027 earnings on an EPS upside of $9.25.
The firm also noted that revenues tied to TSMC are becoming a smaller percentage of Onto Innovation’s total sales, a shift that Cantor cited when framing the company’s revenue mix and growth prospects.
Acquisition adds technological breadth
Onto Innovation recently completed the acquisition of key product lines from Semilab International’s materials analysis business for approximately $495 million. The deal brings three advanced product lines into Onto’s portfolio - FAaST, CnCV and MBIR - and is positioned to broaden the company’s capabilities in inline wafer contamination monitoring, materials characterization and surface charge metrology.
Analysts across multiple firms have noted potential benefits from the transaction for Onto Innovation’s competitive stance. The company and its advisors characterize the closing of this transaction as a significant step in executing its growth strategy.
What this means for investors and the sector
Cantor Fitzgerald’s upgrade and the raised price target reflect a view that near-term operating results and strategic expansion can drive material upside to consensus earnings. The developments are relevant to investors focused on the semiconductor equipment sector, the broader chip supply chain, and market participants watching relative valuations within the industry.