Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) on Friday, assigning an Overweight rating and a price target of $18.00. The target represents approximately a 72% increase versus the stock’s then-current price of $10.45. The firm’s note also highlighted the shares’ short-term volatility, citing a near 22% decline over the prior week based on InvestingPro data.
In its analysis, Cantor Fitzgerald described investing in the African e-commerce operator as a "VC style, high-risk / high-reward opportunity in public markets." The research team pointed to Africa as "the final frontier for eCommerce," arguing that current online penetration in the region remains under one-fifth of that seen in many advanced markets, a gap that the firm believes offers long-term upside potential.
That upside, however, is tempered by Jumia’s recent profitability metrics. The company reported a negative EBITDA of $66.7 million for the last twelve months, a sign that it has not yet converted volume growth into positive operating profits. Cantor Fitzgerald noted this financial profile as consistent with the research firm’s characterization of the investment as high-risk.
Alongside the valuation view, Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted a structural shift inside Jumia over the past three years. The firm described the company’s transition from what it termed a "money-losing do-it-all company" into a "lean and focused eCommerce business," framing that reorientation as a meaningful improvement in operational focus.
Despite acknowledging a number of hurdles ahead, Cantor Fitzgerald expressed confidence in Jumia’s ability to capture market share in Africa, saying the company is "well-positioned to emerge as the Amazon of Africa." The note also added that Jumia "can deliver strong returns with steady execution over the next decade," while conceding the path forward contains "plenty of risks."
The firm’s initiation arrives amid a mixed set of recent company disclosures. Jumia reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $45.6 million, a 25% increase year over year, but that figure missed analysts’ consensus of $50 million. Separately, the company released preliminary unaudited results for a two-month period ending November 30, 2025, showing 30% growth in physical goods orders to 5.1 million. The company said its Black Friday event accounted for 3.2 million of those orders during the promotional window.
Gross merchandise value over the same period rose 35% year over year, and increased 41% when excluding corporate sales, according to the company’s preliminary figures. In parallel with Cantor Fitzgerald’s initiation, Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl also began coverage of Jumia, assigning a Buy rating and an $18 price target while underscoring what he called the company’s structurally advantaged business model.
These analyst actions and the company’s recent operating figures together sketch a picture of a business with notable growth in orders and GMV but persistent profitability challenges and the need for steady execution to realize the upside posited by new coverage.