Cantor Fitzgerald has cut its one-year price target for Robinhood Markets (HOOD) to $100 from $130, while retaining an Overweight rating on the shares. The broker-dealer said the move follows a reassessment of the companys forward earnings profile after reviewing Robinhoods fiscal fourth-quarter results and managements guidance for fiscal 2026 expenses.
At the time Cantor Fitzgerald published its update, Robinhood was trading at $74.80, well under the range of analyst targets that extend from $90 to $180. Market valuation metrics underscore the gap between the street and the stock price: the shares carry a P/E ratio of 35.9, a figure the analysis flagged as implying relative overvaluation at current levels.
The firm adjusted its forecasts after Robinhoods quarter-ending report released on February 10, 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald said the revision was driven by company managements comments and explicit plans for fiscal 2026 spending. Separately compiled analyst estimates show two recent downward revisions to earnings-per-share expectations for the upcoming period, with EPS for fiscal 2026 forecast at $2.42.
Robinhood disclosed a fiscal 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses plus stock-based compensation in a band ranging from $2.6 billion to $2.725 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald noted that the midpoint of that guidance implies roughly 18% year-over-year growth in those costs. The brokerage broke down the expected expense increases into three components: approximately 10% attributable to investments in new and recently launched products, roughly 3% tied to costs related to the TradePMR and Bitstamp acquisitions, and about 5% representing core expense growth.
The newly established $100 target is founded on a valuation methodology that applies 21 times Cantor Fitzgeralds fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $4.086 billion, combined with discounted cash flow inputs. By contrast, the prior target rested on a 27-times multiple applied to a fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $4.364 billion. The lower multiple and reduced EBITDA estimate both contributed to the downward adjustment in the target price.
Cantor Fitzgerald cited heightened market volatility and weaker peer multiples as additional factors behind the reduction. Robinhoods share price has shown elevated sensitivity to market moves, with a reported beta of 2.44. The stock declined 11.25% over the most recent week and has fallen 33.46% over the past six months, figures the firm highlighted in its update.
Despite the cut in the price objective, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated that Robinhood retains several potential growth drivers that could support revenue expansion. The firm pointed to prediction markets, tokenization initiatives, international expansion and retirement product offerings as levers that could help sustain the companys recent top-line momentum. Robinhood recorded revenue growth of 51.58% over the trailing twelve months, a pace the analyst noted when weighing future upside potential against elevated cost trajectories.
Robinhoods quarter presented a mixed operating picture. The company missed revenue expectations by 4% for the fourth quarter, while earnings per share outperformed by 6%, delivering $0.67. For the full fiscal year, EPS reached $2.12, a figure about 2% ahead of consensus forecasts. Those results prompted several peer firms to revisit their targets: Truist Securities lowered its objective from $130 to $120; Barclays trimmed its target to $124, citing softer transaction revenues in options and crypto; and Piper Sandler moved its target to $135 after revenue and adjusted EBITDA missed expectations. Other firms maintained more constructive stances, with one reiterating an Outperform rating at $160 and another keeping a Market Outperform rating with a $180 objective.
The recalibration by Cantor Fitzgerald illustrates the sensitivity of valuation work to both expense pacing and the multiples investors are willing to pay for comparable businesses. For market participants monitoring Robinhood, the interplay between continued revenue growth, the realization of new-product investments and the companys ability to manage acquisition-related and core expense expansion will be central to how the stock trades versus analyst targets going forward.