Cantor Fitzgerald has reduced its price target for Metaplanet to $3.00 from $6.00, while retaining an Overweight recommendation on the stock. At the time of the update the company's share price was $2.77, and InvestingPro data cited in reports indicates the equity remains below Fair Value estimates.
Metaplanet disclosed its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results on Monday. The company recorded ¥4.4 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter and ¥8.9 billion for the fiscal year. The Bitcoin Income segment accounted for 95% of the year's revenue, driven primarily by premium income from Bitcoin option transactions, according to the filing.
InvestingPro data included in coverage notes that the business is operating with weak gross profit margins, a substantive concern for a company scaling Bitcoin-related operations. The margin profile was highlighted as a material challenge as Metaplanet expands that part of its business.
On the balance-sheet front, Metaplanet added 4,280 Bitcoin to its treasury during the fourth quarter, bringing the total held to 35,102 BTC. At a Bitcoin price of $67,500, that balance is equivalent to $2.35 billion. The company reported a Bitcoin Yield - defined as the growth rate of BTC per share on a fully diluted basis - of 11.9% in the fourth quarter and 568% for fiscal 2025.
Despite the concerns on margins and the company receiving an overall FAIR financial health score in InvestingPro's assessment, Metaplanet's equity has shown strong recent momentum, delivering a 77.27% price return over the past six months. Management reiterated long-term accumulation targets, aiming for 100,000 Bitcoin by the end of fiscal 2026 and 210,000 Bitcoin by fiscal 2027, a level described as equivalent to 1% of total Bitcoin supply.
InvestingPro commentary accompanying the data warns that Metaplanet typically trades with high price volatility and notes there are 12 additional insights on the company available through that service. The analyst action - a halving of the price target alongside an unchanged Overweight rating - reflects a view that while the stock may offer upside relative to current market price, substantial operational and valuation risks remain.
Context and implications
The update places emphasis on two central dynamics: the company's heavy revenue dependence on Bitcoin option premium income and its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Those elements are driving headline metrics such as the Bitcoin Yield and treasury valuation, while the weak gross margins and elevated share-price volatility pose questions for prospective investors assessing balance-sheet strength and earnings quality.