Analyst Ratings February 12, 2026

Cantor Fitzgerald Lowers Check Point Software Price Target to $190 After Mixed Q4 Results

Analyst trims target while keeping a Neutral view as subscription strength offsets product revenue shortfall and supply concerns

By Caleb Monroe CHKP
Cantor Fitzgerald Lowers Check Point Software Price Target to $190 After Mixed Q4 Results
CHKP

Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target on Check Point Software (NASDAQ: CHKP) to $190 from $200 and kept a Neutral rating following the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results. The adjustment comes after revenue and operating margin missed consensus despite a strong EPS beat and robust billings growth; the firm’s new target tracks closely with InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment, with the stock trading near its 52-week low.

Key Points

  • Cantor Fitzgerald cut Check Point’s price target to $190 from $200 and kept a Neutral rating; the new target is close to InvestingPro’s Fair Value and the stock is trading near a 52-week low.
  • Q4 results showed an EPS beat of $3.40 versus $2.76, billings rose 8.3% year-over-year to $1,039 million, but total revenue missed estimates at $744.9 million with product revenue of $171.8 million below the expected $180.1 million.
  • Fiscal 2026 guidance reflects subscription revenue growth of 12% at the midpoint and anticipates supply constraints in the second half that could subtract about one percentage point from gross margins; services guidance was positive.

Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its price objective on Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) to $190.00 from $200.00 on Thursday and maintained a Neutral rating on the cybersecurity vendor. The revised target sits near InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimate and suggests the shares could be undervalued at their current market price of $166.73, which is trading close to a 52-week low.

The analyst action followed Check Point’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which showed a mixed financial picture. Management reported an earnings per share of $3.40, comfortably ahead of the analyst consensus of $2.76, representing a 23.19% beat. Despite that outperformance on EPS, total revenue came in slightly below forecasts at $744.9 million versus an expected $746.33 million.

Underlying the revenue miss was weakness in product sales. Product revenue of $171.8 million fell short of the forecasted $180.1 million, even as subscription demand strengthened. Billings improved materially, reaching $1,039 million, up 8.3% year-over-year and above the Street expectation of $1,024 million, signaling healthy deferred revenue trends despite the top-line shortfall.

Check Point’s margin profile remains notable: InvestingPro data indicates gross profit margins near 88%. However, the company flagged supply-related pressures that could affect margin performance later in the fiscal year. Management said memory supply is secured for the first two quarters of fiscal 2026 but expects constraints to resurface in the second half, which could create roughly a one percentage point headwind to gross margins.

For fiscal 2026, Check Point provided initial guidance that centers on subscription-led growth. At the midpoint of guidance, subscription revenue is modeled to grow 12%, which implies flat to low single-digit growth in product revenue for the year. Services execution was described as solid, and the company offered an upbeat services guide for fiscal 2026.

Market reaction to the results was sharp. Cantor Fitzgerald noted Check Point shares were trading down about 7.7% intraday after the results were released, compared with a roughly 1.2% decline in the S&P 500, a move the firm attributed largely to investor response to the revenue miss and associated margin concerns.

In related analyst commentary, BTIG maintained a Neutral rating on Check Point following the quarter, noting that operating income missed BTIG’s forecasts by 2.6%. Overall, the quarter presented a mixed set of outcomes: a sizable EPS beat and stronger billings contrasted with a slight revenue shortfall, weaker product sales, and margin pressure tied to anticipated supply constraints.


Contextual takeaway: The combination of subscription strength and durable gross margins supports underlying business resilience, while near-term product weakness and potential second-half supply disruptions create tangible execution and margin risks that have prompted a more cautious price target from Cantor Fitzgerald.

Risks

  • Supply constraints in the second half of fiscal 2026 could pressure gross margins by about one percentage point, affecting profitability - this impacts enterprise software and hardware supply chains.
  • Product revenue weakness and the quarterly revenue miss may continue to weigh on investor sentiment and share performance, affecting cybersecurity and broader software equity valuations.
  • Operating income missed forecasts by 2.6% according to BTIG, indicating potential near-term margin or cost pressures that could influence profitability metrics and analyst expectations.

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