Cantor Fitzgerald has cut its price target for Booking Holdings Inc. to $4,495 from $5,830 and left its rating unchanged at Neutral. The firm flagged ongoing debate around artificial intelligence - and the uncertainty that creates for the online travel sector's valuation - as a principal reason for the lower target.
Market data show the shares trading close to their 52-week low of $4,020.54, with technical indicators such as the relative strength index pointing to oversold conditions. According to InvestingPro data, the platform suggests the stock may be trading below its fair value at current levels.
Operationally, Booking reported fourth-quarter outperformance versus prior street estimates on several fronts. Visible Alpha data show room nights, gross bookings and EBITDA each beat earlier consensus by 2%, 2% and 4%, respectively. Those results were in line with a generally strong quarter across online travel agency peers.
The company's underlying fundamentals remained robust: a reported gross profit margin of 87% and revenue growth of 12.96% over the last twelve months. For the fourth quarter specifically, Booking recorded adjusted earnings per share of $48.80, topping estimates by $0.61, and reported revenue of $6.35 billion versus a consensus of $6.12 billion. Room nights rose 9% year-over-year, while gross bookings increased 16% year-over-year to $43 billion - approximately 11% on a constant currency basis. Revenue climbed 16% from the prior year, a result the company said was aided by favorable currency exchange rates.
Looking ahead, Booking's fiscal 2026 guidance calls for high-single-digit gross bookings growth on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis and a year-over-year expansion in EBITDA margin of about 50 basis points. That outlook comes in below prior street expectations, which had anticipated roughly 7% gross bookings growth and 120 basis points of margin expansion. Company commentary attributes the smaller margin improvement to incremental investments in growth initiatives.
Analysts continue to model profitability for the company, with InvestingPro consensus forecasting earnings per share of $230.44 for fiscal 2025. Cantor Fitzgerald itself modestly raised its fiscal 2027 assumptions for Booking, increasing gross bookings and EBITDA estimates by 3% and 1%, respectively.
Capital returns also featured in the quarter: Booking repurchased $2.1 billion of its shares during Q4. On the innovation front, the company is piloting multiple artificial intelligence initiatives across its brands and expects a steady cadence of product launches throughout 2026.
Not all analysts view the AI discussion the same way. In a separate note, Citizens maintained a Market Perform rating on Booking Holdings and pointed to the company's significant exposure to independent and boutique hotels as a partial hedge against potential AI-driven disintermediation risks.
Overall, the mix of stronger-than-expected quarterly results and buybacks sits alongside management initiatives and lingering AI debate, leaving near- to medium-term multiples subject to ongoing scrutiny by market participants.