Analyst Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for Rivian Automotive Inc to $18 from $15 on Monday, while retaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The firm cited the company’s fourth-quarter financials and an updated delivery plan as key factors behind the change.
Rivian’s shares have gained notable momentum recently, advancing about 18.5% over the past week and roughly 45% over the last six months.
The fourth-quarter results delivered an unexpected improvement in margins. Rivian reported a GAAP gross margin of 9% for the quarter - a figure well above the visible consensus estimate of 2% - and posted beats on revenue, gross margin, and bottom-line metrics relative to consensus expectations. That quarter-to-quarter performance contrasts with the company’s longer-run margin picture: gross profit margin over the last twelve months stands at 2.67%, underscoring that profitability has been a persistent challenge despite the recent progress.
Looking ahead, management set an initial fiscal 2026 delivery target of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, a range that includes electric delivery vans. That guidance closely matches the visible Alpha consensus of roughly 64,000 units. The company also reiterated that initial deliveries of the R2 model are expected in the second quarter of 2026.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s analysts are forecasting that early 2026 deliveries will be modest - targeting about 10,000 vehicles combined for the first and second quarters - with a substantial ramp anticipated in the back half of the year. The firm expects that volumes for the R1 consumer models and electric delivery vans will be roughly flat year-over-year, while production of the R2 will account for the bulk of incremental volume.
The brokerage raised its price target largely on the basis of higher delivery assumptions and the improving margin profile. In its note the firm highlighted Rivian’s commercial relationship with Amazon, the strategic joint venture with Volkswagen, and what it described as a differentiated product set.
Rivian’s balance sheet also drew positive commentary. Management reported a current ratio of 2.33, which Cantor Fitzgerald pointed to as evidence that the company holds more cash than short-term liabilities and is in a relatively strong liquidity position while it pursues growth.
Quarterly operating results published alongside the guidance showed a narrower-than-expected loss and revenue that beat projections. Rivian reported an EPS loss of -$0.70, slightly better than the consensus -$0.71, and revenue of $1.29 billion, ahead of the approximate $1.27 billion expected. These beats contributed to a positive reception from the market and prompted further analyst action.
Following the quarterly report, Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on Rivian from Hold to Buy and raised its price target to $23.00, pointing to an improved outlook and manageable volume expectations. TD Cowen also revised its target to $17.00 from $13.00 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing the company’s recent announcements as encouraging. Cantor Fitzgerald’s move to $18 rounded out a sequence of upward adjustments from sell-side analysts.
While the latest quarter showed meaningful improvement on a GAAP margin basis, the company’s trailing twelve-month margin remains low, reflecting ongoing profitability pressures. Management’s delivery cadence assumes a substantial mid-year to year-end acceleration to meet the refreshed fiscal-year target, and the market reaction has been shaped by both the margin beat and the updated delivery outlook.
Where this matters
- Automotive and electric-vehicle manufacturing - margins and volume ramp will influence cost absorption and unit economics.
- Logistics and commercial fleet markets - delivery van volumes and Amazon partnership affect demand dynamics in commercial electrification.
- Capital markets - analyst revisions and price-target adjustments are driving near-term equity performance.