Cantor Fitzgerald has reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $63.00 price target on Supernus Pharmaceuticals, following the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results and management commentary. The firm updated its model to reflect revised operating expense and revenue assumptions derived from Supernus’ guidance.
Supernus disclosed 2025 revenues of $719 million, ahead of the consensus estimate of $703 million. The revenue outperformance was attributed largely to stronger-than-anticipated sales of ZURZUVAE and ONAPGO. Shares of the company have climbed 62% over the last year to $53.30, signaling investor confidence in the company’s product mix and commercial performance.
InvestingPro data cited by analysts forecasts a return to profitability for Supernus this year, with expected earnings of $2.59 per share, reversing last year’s loss. The company also reported an impressive gross profit margin of 90%, and InvestingPro’s analyst compilation continues to show a Strong Buy consensus, suggesting some market participants view the stock as slightly undervalued at current levels.
A central point in Cantor Fitzgerald’s review was an update on ONAPGO supply. Supernus secured additional supply from its existing manufacturing partner, and has guided ONAPGO sales of $45 million to $70 million for 2026. Management is also pursuing a second supplier for ONAPGO with the aim of bringing that partner online in 2027. During the earnings call, the supply update was identified by Cantor Fitzgerald as the primary focus of investor discussion.
Separately, Supernus amended a prior merger agreement with Reich Consulting Group, Inc. The amendment, dated January 22, concerns the timing and payment of certain milestones; the company has not disclosed specific terms, citing confidentiality. The amendment follows the original agreement executed on September 12, 2018, and the change was detailed in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Market participants have responded with mixed positioning. Cantor Fitzgerald retained its Overweight stance and $63.00 target, while Stifel revised its price target to $55.00 from $50.00 and maintained a Hold. Stifel noted the company’s ability to navigate a patent cliff and to construct a broader portfolio as factors behind its view.
Other notable disclosures from the quarter: Supernus did not pre-announce revenues or metrics earlier in the year. Cantor Fitzgerald incorporated the company’s guidance into its financial projections, updating operating expense and revenue lines accordingly.
Summary: Cantor Fitzgerald’s reiteration of an Overweight rating and a $63.00 price target follows a revenue beat and a key supply update for ONAPGO. High gross margins and analyst forecasts for a return to profitability underpin positive analyst sentiment, even as other firms take more cautious stances.
- Key point: Revenue beat driven by ZURZUVAE and ONAPGO supports better-than-expected 2025 results and reinforces investor confidence - sectors impacted: healthcare, pharmaceuticals.
- Key point: ONAPGO supply secured from the current supplier with a second supplier targeted for 2027; company guided $45M-$70M in ONAPGO sales for 2026 - sectors impacted: supply chain, biotech manufacturing.
- Key point: Analysts expect Supernus to return to profitability with forecasted EPS of $2.59, and InvestingPro shows a Strong Buy consensus amid a 90% gross profit margin - sectors impacted: equity markets, healthcare investors.
- Risk/uncertainty: Supplier concentration for ONAPGO remains a near-term operational risk until the second supplier is onstream - affects pharmaceutical manufacturing and product availability.
- Risk/uncertainty: Confidential terms in the January 22 amendment with Reich Consulting Group limit visibility into milestone timing and payments, creating uncertainty around that contractual relationship - affects corporate transactions and legal/regulatory oversight.
- Risk/uncertainty: Divergent analyst positioning, illustrated by Cantor Fitzgerald’s Overweight and Stifel’s Hold, highlights varied expectations for sustained revenue and margin performance - affects investor sentiment and equity valuation.