Cantor Fitzgerald has trimmed its 12-month price target for Shopify to $126.00 from $181.00 while leaving its stock rating unchanged at Neutral. The firm said the new target sits close to InvestingPro's Fair Value estimate and implies that the shares - trading at $106.71 - remain modestly undervalued even after a 26.25% decline year-to-date.
The adjustment follows Shopify's fourth-quarter report, which outpaced Street estimates on several fronts. Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted that gross merchandise volume - GMV - and pro forma operating income beat consensus by 2% and 7%, respectively. Separately, the company reported fourth-quarter GMV growth of 31% year-over-year, a figure that the firm linked to strong holiday shopping activity and aligns with Shopify's trailing-12-month revenue growth of 30.14%.
Shopify's monthly recurring revenue growth accelerated by five percentage points to 15% year-over-year, despite the headwind of changes to free-to-paid trial conversions. For the first quarter, the company guided to revenue growth above 30% and gross profit expansion in the high-20% range, compared with gross profit growth of 25% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
On balance-sheet measures and liquidity, Cantor Fitzgerald pointed to InvestingPro metrics that rate Shopify's overall financial health as "GREAT," with an overall score of 3.08. The firm underscored particularly strong cash flow and growth markers and noted that Shopify's liquid assets exceed short-term obligations by nearly six times, reinforcing a solid short-term funding position.
Free cash flow was an area of focus. Cantor Fitzgerald said Shopify's first-quarter free cash flow guidance - targeted at low-to-mid teens percentage of revenue - is being affected by intra-quarter tax timing, and the firm expects that dynamic to normalize in later quarters. Management also emphasized Shopify's competitive strengths, citing core infrastructure that supports AI-powered commerce across multiple sales channels.
Despite raising its fiscal 2027 forecasts - with revenue and pro forma operating income lifted by 2% and 6%, respectively - Cantor Fitzgerald retained a Neutral stance. The firm explained that, even after the recent pullback in the stock, valuation remains a constraining factor. InvestingPro data referenced by Cantor Fitzgerald shows Shopify trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 115.57 and a PEG ratio of 3.09, suggesting a high earnings multiple relative to projected growth.
For investors seeking deeper analysis, the firm pointed to additional content and tools available through InvestingPro, including Pro Research material and related tips on the company. Those resources were described as offering further context on Shopify's financials and strategic positioning.
Market reaction and analyst revisions have been mixed since the quarter. RBC Capital said Shopify's fourth-quarter revenue topped consensus by 2.2% and described the company's performance as fundamentally solid; RBC reduced its price target to $170 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Citizens adjusted its target to $160 but kept a Market Outperform rating.
Mizuho moved in the opposite direction on ratings, upgrading Shopify from Neutral to Outperform, pointing to what it called superb execution and momentum across the company's major growth initiatives. Stifel lowered its price target to $115, citing reservations about the free cash flow margin guide but noting positives in enterprise expansion and international progress. DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating with a $195 price target, calling out Shopify's 31% growth in 2025 and management's forecast of over 30% revenue growth in the first quarter of 2026.
The set of revisions underscores a nuanced view among sell-side analysts: many acknowledge strong operational performance and healthy liquidity, but several firms signal that current valuation levels remain a primary constraint for upgrading to an unequivocal Buy recommendation.
As investors weigh the differing analyst perspectives, the central tension on the stock remains clear - robust growth and cash profile versus what multiple-based metrics portray as a premium valuation. How that balance is resolved in market pricing will depend in part on the company's ability to sustain the growth trajectory and on the normalization of near-term cash flow dynamics that management has flagged.