Cantor Fitzgerald has reduced its one-year price target on Paycom Software (NYSE: PAYC) to $115.00, maintaining a Neutral rating on the payroll and human-capital management software provider. The research house made the change in response to Paycom’s 2026 guidance, which came in below consensus expectations and prompted several analysts to re-evaluate near-term prospects.
Market data show the stock is trading close to its 52-week low of $116.83 and has slid roughly 44.62% over the last six months. That decline comes even as Paycom continues to report high gross profit margins of 86.79%, a figure that speaks to the company’s strong unit economics on a product basis.
The catalyst for Cantor Fitzgerald’s adjustment was Paycom’s projection for Recurring & Other revenue growth of 7-8% in 2026, versus a consensus outlook of 9.8%. Cantor estimated that the guidance represents about a 2% miss in dollar terms relative to consensus. The firm attributed the softer guide to what it described as a "continuing sluggish demand environment and likely an intensifying competitive landscape."
Despite that characterization, Cantor Fitzgerald noted Paycom reported improved operating metrics for 2025. The company logged a one-percentage-point increase in customer retention to 91% and accelerated client growth to 5% during the year. The research house flagged a disconnect between those improved indicators and the more conservative revenue outlook for 2026. While Cantor acknowledged some conservatism in management’s guide, it stopped short of calling the outlook "overly sandbagged."
Paycom’s fourth-quarter results for fiscal 2025 were broadly in line with expectations on the bottom line and slightly above on revenue. The company reported earnings per share of $2.45 and revenue of $544.3 million for the quarter. Nevertheless, the 2026 revenue guidance has become the focal point for investors and analysts.
Across the sell-side, reactions to the guidance varied but leaned toward caution. Guggenheim trimmed its price target on Paycom to $180 from $210 while retaining a Buy rating. KeyBanc Capital Markets cut its target to $195 from $250 and maintained an Overweight rating. Both firms cited concerns about growth following the company’s guidance release. Needham reiterated a Hold rating and emphasized that Paycom’s initial 2026 revenue guide was roughly 220 basis points below consensus estimates.
At the same time, analysts pointed to some constructive operational readouts embedded in the results and guidance. Guggenheim highlighted an expectation that annual revenue retention will increase to 91% in 2025. KeyBanc noted improvements in customer retention, client count growth, and signs of expanded sales capacity. Those data points produced a mixed reaction among analysts, with firms balancing positive unit-level metrics against a muted forward revenue outlook.
In explaining its Neutral stance and lower price target, Cantor Fitzgerald emphasized its view that the macroeconomic and competitive backdrop will likely be "tougher in 2026, not better," and that this environment justified a more conservative forward valuation. The lowered $115 target is intended to reflect that reduced forward outlook while acknowledging the company’s healthy gross margins and recent KPI improvements.
What to watch next - Investors will be paying close attention to whether management’s more conservative guidance represents temporary caution amid a difficult demand environment or a signal of structural pressure on growth. Analysts and market participants will also monitor future retention trends and client growth as indicators of topline durability.