Cantor Fitzgerald has adjusted its valuation of Jumia Technologies (NYSE: JMIA), trimming the firm's price target to $16.00 from $18.00 but keeping an Overweight recommendation on the African e-commerce operator. The $16 target remains well above Jumia's most recent share price of $9.86, which itself has declined sharply from a prior close of $12.27.
In its research note, Cantor highlighted Jumia's fourth-quarter performance, reporting a 37% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise value - excluding perimeter effects. That pace landed a touch below Cantor's internal forecasts, but importantly it surpassed trends observed in October and November, signaling an improvement in momentum as the quarter closed.
Looking forward, Cantor flagged the company's guidance for first-quarter and full-year 2026 GMV growth in a 27-32% year-over-year range. That projection indicates management expects the platform to sustain above-25% growth for multiple upcoming quarters.
Financial metrics reported via InvestingPro data were also cited in Cantor's analysis. Over the trailing twelve months, Jumia's revenue increased 12.8% to $188.93 million, and market valuation in that dataset stands at $1.21 billion. At the same time, InvestingPro shows Jumia carrying negative EBITDA of $55.35 million, and consensus forecasts reflect ongoing losses; EPS estimates for 2026 are -$0.41, with analysts not expecting the company to post profitability this year.
Cantor reiterated management's timeline for reaching operating and cash-flow milestones. The firm noted Jumia expects to achieve EBITDA break-even and become free cash flow positive by the fourth quarter of 2026, with full-year profitability and positive free cash flow anticipated in fiscal year 2027.
Operationally, Jumia is pursuing a tighter commercial footprint. The company plans to exit the Algerian market in February 2026 as part of a strategy to concentrate resources on more profitable territories. Cantor emphasized progress on several strategic initiatives that underpin the bullish long-term view - namely supply expansion, deeper penetration beyond urban centers, and improvements in fulfillment efficiency.
One balance-sheet characteristic singled out in the research note - via InvestingPro data - is that Jumia holds more cash than debt, providing flexibility as the company restructures operations and scales its business model.
Despite the upbeat elements in Cantor's thesis, valuation and recent share performance remain notable. The company trades at a high price-to-book multiple of 42.24. Over the past year Jumia has produced an impressive total return of 167.62%, yet the stock has come under pressure recently, declining 9.47% over the last week.
Additional company results referenced in conjunction with the analyst coverage included a 25% year-over-year increase in revenue for Jumia's third quarter of 2025, with quarterly revenue reaching $45.6 million. That result fell short of a $50 million forecast, prompting investor concern. Management also released preliminary unaudited data showing a 30% increase in physical goods orders for the two months ending November 30, 2025, and a 35% rise in GMV year-over-year - with a meaningful portion of the GMV lift attributed to the company's Black Friday activity.
On the analyst front, the note reiterated that Cantor Fitzgerald initially opened coverage on Jumia with an Overweight rating and an $18 price target, characterizing the investment as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Craig-Hallum's analyst Ryan Sigdahl also began coverage with a Buy rating and an $18 price target, noting Jumia's extended growth runway within the African e-commerce market.
For investors and market participants, the juxtaposition of robust GMV growth and an aggressive valuation highlights the trade-offs inherent in assessing Jumia: the company is showing top-line traction and a clear plan toward profitability, but it still reports negative EBITDA and carries a high price/book multiple that has left recent performance volatile.