Market move and analyst action
Cantor Fitzgerald has lowered its one-year price target on Iris Energy (NASDAQ: IREN) to $82.00 from $136.00 while keeping an Overweight rating on the stock. The revision comes as the shares have slid 25.96% over the past week and were trading at $39.79, well under the analyst high target of $136. According to InvestingPro data cited by analysts, the stock is currently trading above its Fair Value, a situation that could imply scope for price correction despite the analyst's positive stance.
Quarterly performance and trailing metrics
The price-target revision follows Iris Energy's second-quarter 2026 results. The company reported revenue of $184.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $75.3 million, both down on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Management and analysts attribute the drop to lower Bitcoin prices and a decline in operating hash rate as capacity is repurposed from Bitcoin mining toward AI compute workloads.
Over the last twelve months, Iris Energy has produced $688.55 million in revenue and $232.12 million in EBITDA, with a gross profit margin of 69.82%. Those trailing figures provide context for the company's underlying profitability even as near-term operating results softened.
Execution of the AI transition and funding
Cantor Fitzgerald's note emphasizes that Iris Energy is progressing on its AI strategy in line with plans. Construction of Horizon 1-4 at the Childress campus is reported to be on schedule. The retrofit at Prince George is complete but is awaiting GPU delivery, while retrofits are underway at Mackenzie and Canal Flats.
To support its GPU-driven expansion tied to a Microsoft arrangement, Iris Energy secured a $3.6 billion delayed-draw term loan at sub-6% interest, structured to cover 95% of the GPU costs for that deal. The firm’s balance-sheet metrics cited by analysts include a current ratio of 5.52 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34, suggesting available liquidity and a moderate leverage profile for the planned expansion.
Guidance, ARR and new capacity
Management reiterated its year-end 2026 ARR guidance of $3.4 billion. The company also reported that ARR associated with its Prince George site rose to $0.4 billion, taking total committed ARR to $2.3 billion. In addition, Iris Energy announced a new 1.6 GW development in Oklahoma, with power expected to start ramping in 2028.
Analysts cited in the note project steep growth, forecasting revenue to increase by 117% in fiscal year 2026 and estimating earnings per share of $0.83 for that period.
Site-level and market concerns
Cantor Fitzgerald addressed market concerns tied to the Sweetwater site and a proposed new batch processing mechanism in ERCOT. The firm described a 20% after-hours share-price decline as "overblown," noting that Iris Energy secured power for Sweetwater through an interconnect agreement in 2023 and that the company now has a total of 4.5 GW of power secured across its locations.
Despite recent volatility, the stock has delivered a strong return over the last year, with a gain of 243.31%.
Other analyst views and additional research
Citizens has reiterated a Market Outperform rating on Iris Energy and set a price target of $80.00, citing increased confidence in the company’s strategic pivot toward higher-quality data center capacity. InvestingPro is identified as providing 14 additional investment tips for the company and a Pro Research Report with further analysis of the business and its growth prospects.
Prior-period results and transition challenges
Separately, Iris Energy reported a difficult second quarter for fiscal year 2025, with revenue running significantly below forecasts. The shortfall was mainly attributed to a decline in Bitcoin mining revenue. Even so, the company has secured substantial funding and maintains a strong cash position, which analysts point to as important given the complexity of migrating operations from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud services.
Where this leaves investors
The combination of an active transition from mining to AI compute, material near-term revenue volatility tied to Bitcoin pricing and hash-rate changes, and sizeable capital commitments for GPU procurement creates a mixed near-term picture. Cantor Fitzgerald's reduced valuation reflects that near-term uncertainty but stops short of changing the analyst stance on the company's longer-term prospects.
Summary of key metrics quoted
- New Cantor Fitzgerald price target: $82.00 (prior: $136.00) with Overweight maintained.
- Recent share movement: down 25.96% over the past week; trading at $39.79.
- Q2 2026 revenue: $184.7 million; adjusted EBITDA: $75.3 million.
- Last twelve months revenue: $688.55 million; LTM EBITDA: $232.12 million; gross margin: 69.82%.
- Financing: $3.6 billion delayed-draw term loan at sub-6% interest covering 95% of GPU costs for Microsoft deal.
- Liquidity and leverage: current ratio 5.52; debt-to-equity 0.34.
- ARR guidance: $3.4 billion target for year-end 2026; committed ARR: $2.3 billion; Prince George ARR: $0.4 billion.
- New site: 1.6 GW in Oklahoma with power ramp expected in 2028.
- Analyst forecasts: revenue growth of 117% in FY2026; EPS of $0.83.