Cantor Fitzgerald has lowered its price objective for Humana (NYSE: HUM) to $201.00 from $290.00, while retaining a Neutral recommendation on the healthcare insurer. The stock is trading at $176.38, down 31.5% year-to-date and roughly 44% below its 52-week high of $315.35.
The research firm described Humana as "range-bound" until about the second quarter of 2026, when it expects the company will have more definitive information on new members. Cantor Fitzgerald noted managements confidence that the 2026 guidance is conservative, but still sees limited visibility for investors until membership metrics are clearer.
In framing the investment case, Cantor Fitzgerald called it "a tale of two investors." For market participants with shorter horizons, the firm characterized the stock as effectively binary: the risk-reward profile improves materially once membership data becomes available to Humana in April/May and is communicated to investors in June/July. For longer-term holders, the firm reiterated a more constructive view.
The analyst highlighted that a return to normalized margins that would push 2028 earnings per share toward the targets outlined at Humanas June 2025 Investor Day would imply a 4.5x price-to-earnings ratio at current levels. That implied P/E contrasts with Humanas five-year average P/E of 17.6x, per Cantor Fitzgeralds analysis.
Additional company metrics cited include a 2.02% dividend yield and a record of paying dividends for 15 consecutive years. Some analyses referenced in the market also indicate the stock appears undervalued with a strong free cash flow yield.
Brokerage moves and price-target adjustments
- RBC Capital downgraded Humana from Outperform to Sector Perform and cut its price target to $189.00, pointing to Medicare Advantage risks that could pressure the companys cost structure.
- Morgan Stanley moved Humana from Equalweight to Underweight and trimmed its target to $174.00, citing concerns with Humanas 2026 bid strategy and heightened policy risk.
- Guggenheim is identified as having maintained a Buy rating while reducing a price target to $252.00, noting a $1 billion net Stars headwind for 2026 but also acknowledging better-than-expected medical loss ratio results for the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Evercore ISI lowered its price target to $180.00 while keeping an "In Line" rating, aligning the companys EPS guidance with its own estimates that remain below Street consensus.
- Separately, Guggenheim is also noted as reiterating a Buy rating with a $312.00 price target in commentary that highlighted expectations for a volatile fourth-quarter earnings report and uncertainty in Medicare Advantage enrollment growth and profitability for 2026.
These adjustments from multiple broker-dealers reflect a generally cautious tone among analysts as they reassess Humanas near-term prospects and the implications of Medicare Advantage dynamics for the insurers cost base and membership trends.
What to watch
Cantor Fitzgerald and other firms emphasize that clearer membership data in the April/May timeframe, and managements subsequent disclosures in June/July, will be an important catalyst for re-evaluating the stocks near-term trajectory. Until then, the stock is likely to trade within a constrained range, according to the firms view.
Market context and investor implications
The diverging analyst reactions - from downgrades and target cuts to at least one firm maintaining a Buy with a higher target - underscore mixed expectations about the insurers ability to navigate 2026 headwinds. The interplay between enrollment outcomes, Medicare Advantage reimbursement and medical loss ratios will be central to how investors and analysts update valuations in the coming quarters.