Analyst Ratings February 13, 2026

Canaccord Lowers DexCom Price Target to $95, Keeps Buy Rating as Fundamentals Remain Intact

Analyst trims target modestly after Q4 beat; growth and margin drivers cited alongside upcoming clinical and coverage catalysts

By Hana Yamamoto DXCM
Canaccord Lowers DexCom Price Target to $95, Keeps Buy Rating as Fundamentals Remain Intact
DXCM

Canaccord Genuity reduced its 12-month price target for DexCom to $95 from $99 on Friday but maintained a Buy rating. The adjustment follows a quarter that beat revenue expectations and continues a multiyear growth trend, with analysts citing product iteration, margin expansion potential from the G7 sensor, and several pending catalysts that could influence the company’s trajectory in 2026.

Key Points

  • Canaccord Genuity lowered its 12-month price target for DexCom to $95 from $99 but kept a Buy rating.
  • DexCom reported Q4 revenue of $1.26 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and EPS of $0.68 versus a $0.65 consensus; revenue for the last 12 months rose 14.21% to $4.52 billion.
  • Upcoming catalysts cited include a randomized controlled trial readout in H1 2026 and a potential mid-2026 CMS decision on coverage for non-insulin Type 2 diabetes patients; these are not included in the company’s current guidance.

Canaccord Genuity lowered its price target for DexCom (NASDAQ:DXCM) to $95.00 from $99.00 on Friday while keeping a Buy rating on the continuous glucose monitoring company. The research firm’s revision accompanies a set of quarterly results and forward-looking milestones that Canaccord describes as consistent with the company’s previously announced outlook.

InvestingPro data cited by Canaccord indicates that DexCom is trading below its Fair Value and that the analyst consensus remains strongly positive, with a recommendation score of 1.48 (where 1 is Strong Buy). The firm’s updated target equates to a 22% discount to the Elite Med-Tech comparison group, according to Canaccord.

The target reduction follows DexCom reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $1.26 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase. Management attributed that growth to new customer demand and continued product sell-through that carried into the first quarter of 2026. Over the last twelve months DexCom posted 14.21% revenue growth, bringing total revenue to $4.52 billion, per InvestingPro figures.

Canaccord noted that the quarter’s results aligned with DexCom’s preannounced figures from January 12, which had signaled a revenue beat. The firm highlighted the company’s ongoing product iteration in the U.S. market designed to reinforce its position as a leading glucose sensor provider. In particular, Canaccord expects the 15-day G7 sensor to become the predominant offering during the year and to eventually contribute positively to gross margins.

DexCom’s current gross profit margin stands at 59.01%, based on InvestingPro data referenced by the research firm. Canaccord also pointed to several upcoming potential catalysts, including a randomized controlled trial readout slated for the first half of 2026 and a potential mid-2026 decision from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) regarding coverage for non-insulin Type 2 diabetes patients. Canaccord noted that potential CMS coverage is not included in DexCom’s existing guidance.

Analyst activity has been active ahead of these events: eight analysts have revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, a detail flagged in InvestingPro’s research notes.

In related coverage of the most recent quarter, DexCom reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations. The company recorded an EPS of $0.68, versus the consensus forecast of $0.65, reflecting a 4.62% surprise. Revenue for the quarter was $1.26 billion, ahead of the forecasted $1.24 billion. Despite the upside to results, DexCom shares fell in after-hours trading following the release.

Stifel, another research firm following DexCom, maintained its Buy rating and reiterated a price target of $85.00. Stifel characterized the fourth-quarter results as largely in line with prior announcements, noting that DexCom had already provided revenue and margin ranges along with 2026 guidance at a recent healthcare conference.


Overall, Canaccord’s move trims the firm’s valuation by a modest amount while leaving its Buy view intact. The research note frames the adjustment as a relative re-rating against peer comparables rather than as a reassessment of DexCom’s underlying growth trajectory or margin profile.

The company’s upcoming clinical readout and a potential CMS coverage decision represent discrete events that market participants will watch closely in 2026, and those catalysts are highlighted by multiple analysts as not fully incorporated into current guidance.

Investors should note that the information above is drawn from research firm commentary and InvestingPro data cited in the research notes and public disclosures.

Risks

  • Potential CMS coverage decision timing and outcome - the mid-2026 CMS decision could materially affect market access for non-insulin Type 2 patients and is not factored into current guidance (impact on healthcare and medical device sectors).
  • Clinical trial readout uncertainty - the randomized controlled trial result expected in the first half of 2026 may introduce volatility depending on the outcome (impact on MedTech and healthcare investor expectations).
  • Valuation compression versus peers - Canaccord’s target reflects a 22% discount to the Elite Med-Tech group, indicating relative valuation risk should peer multiples shift (impact on healthcare and MedTech equity valuations).

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