Canaccord Genuity has lowered its 12-month price target on Shopify (SHOP) to $165.00 from $185.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the e-commerce platform provider. The stock is currently trading at $116.68, under both the newly adjusted target and the company’s 52-week high of $182.19. Independent fair-value metrics show the share price is modestly undervalued relative to that assessment.
The research note frames Shopify as enjoying "a lot of momentum," a view reinforced by the company’s Q1 guidance. That momentum is visible in Shopify’s trailing twelve-month revenue growth of 30.25%, and the analyst community is projecting continued robust expansion of roughly 29% for fiscal 2025.
Canaccord describes Shopify primarily as an infrastructure business that major AI platform providers - including OpenAI, Google and Microsoft - are increasingly integrating with. The firm argues Shopify’s e-commerce rails could serve as the backbone for AI-enabled product discovery and shopping experiences, positioning the company as a key plumbing layer for next-generation commerce applications.
On balance-sheet metrics, Shopify measures strongly. Canaccord notes a current ratio of 3.93 and liquid assets that exceed the company’s short-term obligations. The company’s market capitalization stands north of $151 billion, and platform metrics assign Shopify a "GREAT" overall score.
Despite those positives, Canaccord signals that Shopify’s shares were "relatively expensive" heading into the most recent quarterly report, which may have contributed to the market’s reaction after results. The firm notes that some investors sought more definitive commentary on the direction of margins, while others appear unsure about what the pivot toward AI agents means for Shopify’s medium-term operating profile.
Valuation remains a focal point. Shopify’s price-to-earnings ratio sits at 86.03 and the company trades at a high EBITDA multiple, even as its liquidity metrics are healthy. In this context, Canaccord advises investors to consider "adding to SHOP on the weakness," contending that AI advancements should be "unequivocally a tailwind to the business" provided checkout economics remain intact and AI-enabled experiences attract additional merchants to the platform.
Stock price moves underscore the debate. Shopify posted an 11.59% return over the past week even as it remains down 20.95% year-to-date, reflecting notable volatility in investor sentiment around growth, margins and AI implications.
Shopify’s most recent quarterly results were stronger than consensus expectations. For fourth-quarter 2025, the company reported earnings per share of $0.57 versus the anticipated $0.51, and revenue of $3.67 billion compared with a $3.59 billion estimate. Those beats highlight the company’s continued top-line strength and contributed to the mixed market response discussed by Canaccord.
Canaccord’s guidance on positioning — maintaining a Buy while trimming the price target and recommending accumulation on weakness — reflects a view that the structural advantages of Shopify’s platform and the emergence of AI-enabled commerce use cases support medium- to long-term opportunity, even as near-term valuation and margin clarity create investor uncertainty.
How this affects markets: The analysis touches sectors beyond pure e-commerce, including IT services and software infrastructure, as well as broader technology investment themes tied to AI enablement. Investors focused on growth-oriented technology names will likely weigh Shopify’s revenue momentum against elevated valuation metrics when calibrating risk exposure.