Canaccord Genuity lowered its price target on Pagaya Technologies to $32.00 from $39.00 and retained a Buy rating on the stock. Shares were trading at $14.19, down from $18.64 at the previous close, and appear undervalued when measured against the company's Fair Value analysis.
In the most recent quarter Pagaya reported network volume of $2.7 billion, a sequential decline of about 3.5% but an increase of roughly 4% compared with the year-ago period. Canaccord characterized the pattern as evidence of "continued prudent underwriting with a focus on steady investor returns." The company also shows a strong liquidity position, with a current ratio of 5.11, indicating liquid assets substantially exceed short-term liabilities.
Operational performance showed notable improvement on several profitability measures. Total revenue rose 20% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 53%, producing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.3%. Pagaya reported positive GAAP net income of approximately $34 million for the quarter.
Management provided guidance for Q1 2026 that calls for network volume between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion, total revenue and other income of $315 million to $335 million, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $80 million to $95 million, and GAAP net income from $15 million to $35 million.
For full-year 2026, Pagaya's guidance projects network volume of $11.25 billion to $13 billion, total revenue and other income of $1.4 billion to $1.575 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $410 million to $460 million, and net income of $100 million to $150 million.
Additional recent company disclosures included fourth-quarter 2025 results in which Pagaya posted earnings per share of $0.80, materially above the consensus forecast of $0.35 - a difference quantified as a 128.57% increase over expectations. Revenue for the quarter, however, missed the projection, registering $334.81 million versus the anticipated $348.75 million.
Analyst reactions to the quarterly results and guidance were mixed but generally more cautious than the earnings beat might suggest. Stephens lowered its price target from $33.00 to $25.00 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing that volumes and revenues came in below forecasts and that the 2026 guidance fell short of market expectations. Citizens followed with its own reduction, trimming its price target to $22.00 from $35.00 and keeping a Market Outperform rating; the firm pointed to expected slower growth and reduced operating leverage in the year ahead. Together, these moves underscore a degree of analyst caution despite Pagaya's positive EPS print.
The juxtaposition of an earnings outperformance with softer top-line results and more conservative guidance has produced divergent responses among brokers. Canaccord's adjustment to a lower price target while preserving a Buy stance reflects a tempered but constructive view, emphasizing prudent underwriting and improving profitability metrics. By contrast, the reductions from Stephens and Citizens reflect concerns tied to near-term growth and operating leverage.
Investors will likely weigh Pagaya's strong liquidity and expanding margins against the sequential dip in network volume, the revenue shortfall in the quarter, and guidance that some analysts consider conservative. These elements together have contributed to recent share-price volatility and to the reassessment of valuation by several brokerages.
Key data points from the company's disclosures and subsequent analyst moves are presented above. Where figures are reported as approximate, the company provided rounded or approximate values in its disclosures.