BTIG has reaffirmed a Neutral rating on Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) after the security software vendor released fourth-quarter financials and its outlook for fiscal 2026. The firm’s market capitalization sits at $17.69 billion and the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.92, a level which InvestingPro flags as low relative to near-term earnings growth potential.
The company reported fourth-quarter billings of $1,039 million, an 8.3% increase year-over-year and above the Street consensus of $1,024 million. Product revenue, however, came in at $171.8 million, growing only 0.7% from the prior year and missing the expected $180.1 million figure. Operating income also fell short of BTIG’s internal forecast by 2.6%.
Despite the mixed top-line and operating results, Check Point continues to show robust gross profitability. For the trailing twelve months, gross profit margin stood at 87.97%, underscoring a high level of operational efficiency.
Fiscal 2026 outlook and cash generation
For fiscal year 2026 management provided revenue guidance with a midpoint of $2,890 million, which represents 6.0% year-over-year growth. That midpoint is slightly lower than prior Street estimates of $2,893 million. Separately, the company introduced an adjusted free cash flow target with a midpoint of $1,200 million - a figure that exceeds Street expectations of $1,174 million.
InvestingPro data shows Check Point’s five-year revenue compound annual growth rate at 5%, a pace roughly consistent with the company’s 2026 revenue guide. BTIG highlighted that Check Point expects subscription revenue to accelerate to 12% growth in fiscal 2026 and that the business should benefit from price increases throughout the year.
Analyst reaction and adjustments
BTIG described the quarterly performance as "ok," pointing to a blend of constructive and concerning signs. The firm trimmed its billings estimates for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 while largely keeping revenue projections intact. BTIG’s continued Neutral rating reflects skepticism that Check Point can reliably deliver sustainable high-single-digit or low-double-digit growth.
At the same time, valuation indicators leave room for longer-term investors: Check Point’s PEG ratio stands at 0.71 and the shares trade below InvestingPro’s Fair Value estimate. Management has also been actively repurchasing shares, which BTIG notes as a potential signal of confidence from the company.
Earnings beat but revenue slightly missed
In earnings details for the fourth quarter of 2025, Check Point reported earnings per share of $3.40, ahead of the projected $2.76 and representing a positive surprise of 23.19%. Revenue in the quarter was $744.9 million, narrowly under the $746.33 million analysts had expected.
These results illustrate the mixed nature of the quarter: strong earnings performance alongside a slight shortfall in revenue and specific weakness in product sales and operating margins. Market participants and analysts are continuing to monitor the company’s financial trajectory closely.
What this means for investors
BTIG’s Neutral stance combines measured optimism around cash generation and valuation with caution over whether Check Point can accelerate revenue growth meaningfully. For investors focused on longer-term value, the company’s cash flow guidance, strong gross margins, and share buybacks are factors to weigh. For those prioritizing faster top-line expansion, BTIG’s lowered billings outlook and the company’s own tempered revenue guidance may warrant continued scrutiny.