Analyst Ratings February 10, 2026

Brean Capital Opens Coverage on BancFirst With Hold Rating, $123 Target

Analyst sets FY26-FY27 EPS below consensus; valuation premised on premium multiple and tangible book multiple

By Hana Yamamoto BANF
Brean Capital Opens Coverage on BancFirst With Hold Rating, $123 Target
BANF

Brean Capital has initiated coverage of BancFirst Corporation (NASDAQ: BANF) with a Hold rating and a $123 price target. The firm’s valuation is based on a 17.6x multiple of its FY26 EPS estimate and 250% of current tangible book value, reflecting a historical premium to peers. BancFirst currently trades near $119.61 with a market capitalization of $4.01 billion, a P/E of 16.84, and a dividend yield of 1.63%. The bank announced cash dividend and trust preferred payments for January 15, 2026, and published a Sustainability Report for November 2025.

Key Points

  • Brean Capital initiates coverage of BancFirst with a Hold rating and a $123 price target, while the stock trades at $119.61 and a $4.01 billion market capitalization - sector impact: banking/financials.
  • Brean’s valuation uses 17.6x its FY26 EPS estimate ($6.98) and 250% of tangible book value, compared with peer medians of approximately 11.3x and 168% - sector impact: regional bank valuation metrics.
  • BancFirst maintains a long dividend track record (28 consecutive increases) and yields 1.63%; the company announced dividend and trust preferred payments for January 15, 2026 - sector impact: income investors and fixed income within financials.

Brean Capital has begun formal coverage of BancFirst Corporation (NASDAQ: BANF), assigning a Hold rating and a price target of $123.00. At the time of the initiation the stock is trading at $119.61. The Oklahoma-based regional bank carries a market capitalization of $4.01 billion and is identified by InvestingPro Fair Value data as appearing undervalued.

Earnings and analyst assumptions

John Rodis of Brean Capital set adjusted earnings per share projections of $6.98 for fiscal 2026 and $7.01 for fiscal 2027. Those figures compare with current consensus estimates of roughly $7.02 for FY26 and $7.20 for FY27. For context, BancFirst’s diluted earnings per share for the last twelve months stand at $7.11.

Valuation framework

Brean’s $123 price target rests on two valuation anchors: a multiple of 17.6 times its FY26 EPS estimate and 250% of current tangible book value. Brean contrasts those assumptions with peer median metrics of about 11.3 times earnings and 168% of tangible book value. BancFirst itself is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.84 and at 2.26 times book value according to the cited data.

InvestingPro data also note a long-standing record of shareholder distributions: the company has increased its dividend for 28 consecutive years and the current cash yield stands at 1.63%.

Drivers cited by Brean

Brean Capital highlighted that BancFirst has historically commanded a premium valuation relative to its peers. The firm attributes that premium to the bank’s strong fundamentals and elevated insider ownership and expects those factors to sustain the premium over time. The initiation of coverage by Brean follows the firm’s acquisition of Janney Montgomery Scott’s Banking and Insurance capital markets teams on January 30.

Dividend and debt security payments

Separately, BancFirst disclosed a quarterly cash dividend of $0.49 per common share, payable on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 31, 2025. The company will also pay quarterly interest on $26.8 million of its 7.20% Junior Subordinated Debentures, which corresponds to a $0.45 per-share dividend on the trust preferred securities. That payment is scheduled for January 15, 2026 to holders of record as of December 31, 2025.

Sustainability disclosure

BancFirst released a Sustainability Report for November 2025 that outlines its environmental, social and governance efforts. The company says the report provides insight into sustainability topics it regards as material to its business operations and the communities it serves.

Investor takeaways

The initiation frames BancFirst as a regional bank trading close to Brean’s target, with EPS estimates slightly below consensus for the next two fiscal years and a long track record of dividend increases. The firm’s price target is driven by a premium multiple and a high tangible book multiple versus peers. Investors weighing the Hold rating may consider the company’s current payout profile and the stated rationale for a sustained valuation premium when positioning within the banking and broader financials sector.


Risks

  • Earnings projections used in the valuation are modestly below current consensus for FY26 and FY27, creating uncertainty if actual results diverge from Brean’s estimates - sector impact: banking earnings and investor expectations.
  • Valuation is predicated on a continued premium multiple and elevated tangible book multiple versus peers; if the premium compresses, the price target may no longer be supported - sector impact: equity valuations in regional banks.
  • Dividend and trust preferred payments are scheduled with record dates at year-end 2025; any change to capital allocation or regulatory capital requirements could affect payouts - sector impact: dividend investors and bank capital management.

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