BofA Securities has reaffirmed its Buy rating on Eli Lilly stock and maintained a $1,293 price target after Novo Nordisk announced a reduction in GLP-1 list prices. Eli Lilly, with a market capitalization cited at $937 billion in the update, is trading at $1,049 and has gained 49% over the past six months.
The bank told investors the pricing announcement from Novo Nordisk is unlikely to have a material effect on the U.S. market. BofA noted the change applies only to the commercial insurance channel - a segment it estimates will represent about 30% of 2025 sales - and one that is decreasing as a share of total GLP-1 sales.
Novo Nordisk plans to relist Wegovy and Ozempic with a list price of $675 beginning in 2027, while indicating it will not alter the discounted net price provided to employers via pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) after rebates and discounts. BofA interprets the move as an effort to lower patient out-of-pocket expenses in settings where copays and coinsurance are calculated from list price; the list-price reduction is about $400.
The firm’s channel checks suggest broader commercial reimbursement for GLP-1 medicines may depend on the narrowing of the gap between PBM net price and consumer cash price. BofA estimates PBM net price at roughly $600 and consumer cash price at around $400. Data referenced in the analysis - from GoodRx - shows that Zepbound and Wegovy have covered lives across commercial insured plans of approximately 50% and 75%, respectively, although most of these coverages include restrictions.
Given there is no clear sign Novo Nordisk intends to pursue deeper reductions in net pricing within the commercial insurance channel and with cash-pay and U.S. government channels expected to play larger roles (these channels are not affected by the announced list price change), BofA sees limited downside risk to Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 franchise.
The firm also highlighted Eli Lilly’s recent financial momentum, pointing to 44.7% revenue growth and noting that six analysts have moved to raise earnings estimates.
Recent company developments cited alongside the rating:
- Eli Lilly received FDA approval for a label expansion of its Zepbound multi-dose KwikPen device, enabling a full month of treatment to be delivered with one device. The option serves as an alternative to the single-dose vial and is offered at the same self-pay price through LillyDirect.
- Tirzepatide demonstrated superior weight-loss results compared with Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema in a clinical trial for obesity, with Tirzepatide achieving a 25.5% reduction in body weight versus 23% for CagriSema.
- Barclays initiated coverage of Eli Lilly with an overweight rating, highlighting the company’s meaningful role in obesity treatment.
- Eli Lilly’s Omvoh showed durable, steroid-free remission in Crohn’s disease patients for more than three years in a study.
- A combination of Taltz and Zepbound demonstrated superior efficacy in psoriasis treatment, with a notable share of patients attaining complete skin clearance alongside weight loss.
These clinical and regulatory updates were presented in the context of BofA’s assessment that the Novo Nordisk list-price change is targeted and limited in scope, and therefore unlikely to materially disrupt Eli Lilly’s market position in the near term.
Market participants tracking the GLP-1 class will likely continue to monitor how PBM negotiations, cash-pay adoption, and government channels evolve, as these factors will influence real-world reimbursement and patient access beyond headline list-price figures.