BofA Securities has reiterated a Buy rating on Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY) and kept its price target at $265 following the company’s fourth-quarter financial report. The firm’s decision follows a quarter that combined better-than-expected recurring performance with guidance that disappointed relative to analyst forecasts.
Management reported fourth-quarter current remaining performance obligations - cRPO - growth of 15.8%, which exceeded internal guidance of 15.5% by 30 basis points. Workday noted that some transactions, particularly in the federal, state and local government and healthcare verticals, shifted into fiscal year 2027, affecting the timing of recognized bookings.
Looking ahead, Workday’s guidance for first-quarter subscription growth sits at 13%, trailing BofA Securities’ projection of 14%. The company also issued fiscal 2027 subscription revenue guidance with a midpoint of $9.938 billion, representing 12.5% growth; that figure is below BofA’s 13.7% estimate. Those shortfalls on subscription growth and full-year revenue expectations have been a contributor to the share price weakness observed since the guidance release.
At the market level, Workday shares have traded close to their 52-week low of $125.83, and the stock has declined roughly 49% over the past year. InvestingPro analysis referenced by market commentary indicates that the stock appears on a most-undervalued list on the platform, with additional Fair Value analysis and Pro Research content available to subscribers.
Operationally, the quarter delivered upside. Workday reported a fourth-quarter operating margin of 30.6%, beating BofA Securities’ estimate by 210 basis points. The margin improvement was attributed to subscription upside and efficiencies tied to AI initiatives. However, fiscal 2027 operating margin guidance of 30% was below BofA’s expectation of 32%.
Management told investors it intends to reinvest in the business to strengthen AI offerings and increase sales resources. The company framed its near-term subscription outlook as one in which several deals are likely to close across fiscal 2027 rather than all in the immediate quarter, a point consistent with the earlier note that some vertical-specific transactions rolled into the new fiscal year.
Additional analyst activity since the results has underscored a cautious tone among some research shops. Rosenblatt trimmed its price target to $150 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing the results. TD Cowen moved to downgrade the stock from Buy to Hold and lowered its target to $155, pinpointing growth concerns tied to slipped deals. Wolfe Research cut its target to $150 but kept an Outperform rating, flagging weaknesses in net new core business and extended sales cycles. Evercore ISI reduced its recommendation to In Line from Outperform and set a $160 target, noting the CEO transition and AI investments as factors complicating the near-term investment narrative. Separately, TD Cowen had earlier reduced its target to $200 while retaining a Buy rating based on mixed checks and an expectation of an in-line quarter.
The result of these developments is a mixed picture: the company posted margin and cRPO beats in the quarter while guiding to subscription and margin levels that fell short of some analyst models. Workday’s plan to reinvest in AI and sales capacity is explicitly intended to support future growth, but the timing of deal closures in government and healthcare verticals has been a near-term headwind to bookings and revenue recognition.
Key takeaways
- BofA Securities affirmed a Buy rating and $265 price target on Workday after Q4 results that delivered cRPO and operating margin beats.
- Guidance for Q1 subscription growth and fiscal 2027 subscription revenue and margins came in below BofA estimates, with deal timing in government and healthcare cited as a factor.
- Multiple analysts have adjusted price targets and recommendations following the report, reflecting cautious sentiment on near-term growth and the company’s strategic reinvestments.
Sectors impacted - enterprise software, government IT procurement, healthcare IT.
Risks and uncertainties
- Deal timing and delayed bookings in government and healthcare verticals may depress near-term revenue and bookings - this affects enterprise software exposure to public sector and healthcare budgets.
- Reinvestment in AI and sales resources could pressure margins relative to expectations if efficiencies do not materialize as anticipated - impacting investor views on profitability in enterprise software.
- Analyst downgrades and lowered price targets indicate market sensitivity to execution on net new core business and elongated sales cycles - a risk for valuation and capital markets reception.
Investors and market participants will likely be watching deal cadence in fiscal 2027, the effectiveness of AI-related investments at driving efficiency and new bookings, and whether management’s reinvestment choices can restore alignment with analyst growth and margin assumptions.