BMO Capital Markets has lowered its target price for Newmont Mining Corp. to $140 from $145 but left its Outperform rating intact, pointing to a challenging near-term operating picture for the gold miner.
The bank highlighted several elements of Newmont's fourth-quarter outlook that drove the change. Management guidance shows elevated all-in sustaining costs and an expected 7% year-over-year decline in production, down to 5.3 million ounces. In addition, contained gold in the companys reported reserves and resources fell by roughly 12%.
Those operational headwinds are set against a company that still describes 2026 as a trough year and anticipates a return to about 6 million ounces per year in future production, along with some reversion in costs. Newmont also reported fourth-quarter free cash flow of $900 million, a result the company said exceeded expectations.
Capital returns remain a feature of the firms financial strategy. Newmont boosted its dividend during the period and retains capacity to expand share buybacks under its capital return program. InvestingPro data noted that Newmont has continued dividend payouts for 55 consecutive years, although the stock presently appears overvalued relative to InvestingPros Fair Value analysis.
Market performance has been strong over the last 12 months: the shares have returned about 165% year-over-year and were trading at $125.40, implying a market capitalization near $136.5 billion at the time of the report.
Outside analyst commentary added further nuance to the picture. Raymond James published a technical analysis flagging potential near-term downside for Newmont shares, citing negative price momentum and early signs of selling pressure. Broader moves in precious metals also reinforced volatility in mining equities.
Precious-metal price swings influenced sector performance in the period around Newmonts update. Spot gold fell 0.4% after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data lowered odds of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Earlier in the same week, spot gold had risen by 0.8% on a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, a move that supported premarket strength in gold-mining stocks.
As metal prices pulled back from recent highs, a range of gold and silver miners saw notable declines. The report cites steep falls among silver-focused companies as especially pronounced, with names such as Pan American Silver and Hecla Mining experiencing outsized weakness. Other large-cap gold miners including Barrick and Agnico Eagle Mines were also mentioned as moving lower as precious metals retreated.
From an operational and cash-flow perspective, the picture is mixed: Newmont is generating robust free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders, yet it faces near-term cost and production pressures and a lower contained-gold base in reserves and resources. Those factors informed BMO's modest 3% reduction in its price target while the firm maintained a constructive stance on the stock.
Read more: For investors seeking deeper company-level analysis, Newmonts detailed Pro Research Report is available through InvestingPros suite of research products, which includes more than 1,400 reports translating complex metrics into actionable analysis.