Analyst Ratings February 9, 2026

BMO Sticks With Outperform on Roblox, Cites Rapid Viral Growth from New Brainrot Game

Surge in creator-led Brainrot titles lifts engagement and bookings, even as analysts remain divided on valuation and near-term trends

By Derek Hwang RBLX
BMO Sticks With Outperform on Roblox, Cites Rapid Viral Growth from New Brainrot Game
RBLX

BMO Capital has maintained an Outperform rating and a $160 price target for Roblox Corp. (RBLX), pointing to the rapid scaling of a recent breakout game on the platform. The new Brainrot-themed title has drawn tens of millions of visits in days, supporting broader engagement gains across experiences outside Roblox's top-10. Still, analyst views on the stock range from Buy to Sell amid questions about engagement durability and macro-driven valuation pressures.

Key Points

  • BMO Capital keeps an Outperform rating and $160 price target on Roblox, near the top of the analyst price range of $67 to $167.
  • New Brainrot-themed game "Survive LAVA for Brainrots!" amassed 60 million lifetime visits and reached about 17 million daily visits in 10 days, outpacing the predecessor's ramp.
  • Platform-wide engagement outside the top-10 experiences rose 68% and bookings outside the top-10 grew 53%, alongside 144 million daily active users in 2025 - up 69% year-over-year.

BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform recommendation for Roblox Corp. and left its price target at $160, citing the rapid adoption of a newly launched game on the platform. That target sits near the top end of analyst estimates, which range from $67 to $167 according to InvestingPro data.

The title driving BMO's enthusiasm is "Survive LAVA for Brainrots!", which launched on January 30. The game has accumulated 60 million lifetime visits so far and produced weekend spikes of 12.6 million visits on Saturday and 17.1 million on Sunday. BMO flagged the game's pace of adoption as notable - it reached roughly 17 million daily visits in 10 days, a quicker ascent than the prior Brainrot hit "Escape Tsunami for Brainrots!", which took 26 days to reach the same daily-visit level.

While "Escape Tsunami for Brainrots!" appears to have peaked with 161 million daily visits on January 24, BMO highlighted the steady arrival of new Brainrot-themed experiences across the platform. The firm suggested that this string of related titles may be coalescing into a durable sub-genre within Roblox's ecosystem.

Beyond the single-game metrics, BMO drew attention to engagement outside the platform's top-10 experiences. Those experiences produced a 68% increase in engagement and a 53% rise in bookings, both accelerating relative to Q3 2025. Roblox reported 144 million daily active users in 2025, up 69% year-over-year, and those users engaged with more than 24 unique experiences per month in 2025 - a double-digit increase compared with 2024.

On the financial side, InvestingPro data referenced by analysts shows Roblox remains unprofitable on a trailing twelve-month basis, with EPS of -$1.54, but carries more cash than debt on its balance sheet. Street models cited in the same data set call for 72% revenue growth in the current fiscal year.

BMO's view explicitly addressed prior concerns about AI-driven displacement of gaming audiences, describing Roblox as "likely best positioned in gaming to benefit from AI" and signaling that recent user- and creator-led content virality strengthens the company's positioning.

Market reaction among sell-side analysts has been mixed. Roth/MKM upgraded Roblox from Neutral to Buy after unexpectedly strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, pointing to a favorable bookings outlook and projecting bookings to grow at a compound annual rate above 20% in coming years. Piper Sandler left an Overweight rating in place but trimmed its price target to $100; Piper noted a 63% year-over-year bookings increase that exceeded its forecasts by 8%.

Conversely, TD Cowen reiterated a Sell rating, citing concerns around engagement trends despite fourth-quarter bookings coming in roughly in line with its estimates. Benchmark maintained a Hold rating, indicating a more cautious stance on the company’s 2026 outlook even after a strong finish to 2025. Jefferies also kept a Hold rating but lowered its price target to $70, attributing the cut to peer multiple compression while acknowledging the fourth-quarter results were better than feared; Jefferies characterized the company’s first-quarter bookings guidance as likely conservative.

These divergent analyst calls underline a split view on Roblox's near-term momentum versus its longer-term revenue and bookings trajectory. BMO's research team appears encouraged by the platform-level engagement mix and the speed of recent creator-led breakout content, while other firms emphasize potential headwinds from valuation multiples, engagement durability, and peer-compression effects.

For investors assessing Roblox, the most concrete near-term signals are high-frequency engagement metrics and bookings growth driven by viral creator content. The company reported a strong fourth quarter of 2025 that materially improved bookings, profitability, and cash flow, prompting upgrades and sustained bullish views from some firms but continued skepticism from others.


Contextual note: The data points and analyst positions above reflect published analyst ratings, reported user and visit counts for specific games, and InvestingPro financial metrics cited by those analysts. Where guidance or longer-term projections were mentioned, they were attributed directly to the firms and sources noted.

Risks

  • Durability of engagement - several firms expressed concern that the recent spikes in creator-led titles may not sustain long-term user engagement or bookings, affecting gaming and consumer internet sectors.
  • Valuation and peer multiple compression - some analysts reduced price targets or maintained cautious ratings due to pressure on multiples, creating market risk for equity investors.
  • Divergent analyst views - mixed recommendations from Buy to Sell reflect uncertainty around near-term bookings momentum and guidance, increasing uncertainty for investors in technology and media sectors.

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