BMO Capital has raised its one-year price target for Saia Inc. (NASDAQ:SAIA) to $415.00 from $350.00 while leaving the stock at a Market Perform rating. The research house said the higher target comes despite Saia’s fourth-quarter 2025 results falling short of expectations.
In its commentary, BMO highlighted Saia’s guidance as a potential catalyst for operating ratio improvement following what the firm described as "a very challenging 2025" for the less-than-truckload carrier. The firm also characterized Saia as having "among the highest torque to a cyclical upturn" in the transportation sector, though it warned the company carries an "above-average dependence on accelerating volumes."
BMO summarized the current stance on Saia as balanced, saying the risk-reward profile is "balanced at this point" until clearer evidence of a cyclical volume recovery in the broader transportation industry emerges.
Saia’s own fourth-quarter 2025 financials were mixed. The company reported earnings per share of $1.77, below the consensus estimate of $1.90. Revenue, however, came in at $790 million, slightly ahead of the $775.64 million forecast.
Those results have prompted a range of analyst reactions. Susquehanna downgraded Saia to Neutral, citing valuation concerns and revising its 2026 EPS estimate to $10.35. BofA Securities increased its price target to $413 while maintaining a Neutral rating, pointing to the company’s margin outlook. Morgan Stanley moved to an Underweight rating with a $250 price target, attributing the change to what it called a "modest miss" in Saia’s quarterly metrics. Stifel trimmed its price target to $364 and kept a Hold rating after noting weaker-than-expected quarterly performance.
These varying analyst responses reflect differing interpretations of Saia’s recent results and near-term prospects, particularly around the company’s sensitivity to freight volumes and its ability to restore operating efficiency. For investors and market observers focused on transportation and logistics, the debate centers on when - and if - volumes will reaccelerate enough to materially improve margins and operating ratios.
Key takeaways:
- BMO raised its price target to $415 from $350 but kept a Market Perform rating on Saia.
- Saia posted Q4 2025 EPS of $1.77 versus an expected $1.90, and revenue of $790 million versus $775.64 million expected.
- Analysts disagree on the outlook - moves range from downgrades and lower targets to modest price-target increases tied to margin expectations.
Sectors impacted: Transportation, freight and logistics markets, and broader equity markets that track cyclical carriers.
Risks and uncertainties:
- Dependence on accelerating volumes - Saia’s recovery is sensitive to cyclical volume improvements in transportation.
- Near-term earnings variability - recent EPS missed consensus, indicating potential for continued earnings volatility.
- Analyst disagreement - divergent broker views signal uncertainty about timing and magnitude of margin and operating-ratio recovery.