Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

BMO Lowers Wendy’s Price Target Citing Execution Risk in Turnaround Plan

Analyst trims target to $9 while maintaining Market Perform as sales weakness and guidance shortfall weigh on shares

By Nina Shah WEN
BMO Lowers Wendy’s Price Target Citing Execution Risk in Turnaround Plan
WEN

BMO Capital Markets reduced its 12-month price target on Wendy’s (WEN) to $9.00 from $11.00 and kept a Market Perform rating, pointing to significant execution risk around the company’s Project Fresh turnaround amid a challenging operating backdrop. Wendy’s recent results showed a slight EBITDA beat for Q4 2025 but continued pressure on comparable sales, restaurant-level margins and revenue. Several other firms have also trimmed targets and the company’s 2026 guidance came in well below consensus.

Key Points

  • BMO Capital cut its price target on Wendy’s to $9.00 from $11.00 and maintained a Market Perform rating.
  • Wendy’s reported Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $113 million, slightly above the $112 million consensus, but saw U.S. comparable sales drop 11.3% and restaurant-level margins fall 380 basis points.
  • Company guidance for fiscal 2026 was well below consensus; RBC Capital and Bernstein SocGen also trimmed price targets and KeyBanc reiterated a cautious Sector Weight rating.

BMO Capital Markets lowered its price objective on Wendy’s Co. to $9.00 from $11.00 while retaining a Market Perform rating. The move comes as the burger chain contends with weakening sales trends, margin compression and a guidance update that fell short of street expectations. According to InvestingPro data, Wendy’s stock is trading around $6.84, down 44.5% over the past 12 months and trading near a 52-week low of $7.08.

Wendy’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $113 million, narrowly outpacing the $112 million consensus. The company said favorable general and administrative expenses and rental income helped offset softer global comparable sales. On a trailing 12-month basis, Wendy’s total EBITDA stood at $506.6 million.

Operationally, U.S. comparable sales fell 11.3% in the quarter, a decline the company attributed to difficult year-over-year comparisons and a materially lower marketing cadence. Restaurant-level margins contracted by 380 basis points, reflecting the sales pressure at the unit level. Over the past year, Wendy’s revenue declined by 3.1%.

Management described October as the trough for comparable sales, noting improvement to negative 8% in January before recent weather disruptions. The company issued 2026 guidance that was well below consensus and provided further details on its Project Fresh turnaround plan. BMO characterized Project Fresh as sensible in design but warned that execution risk is meaningful and the operating environment remains challenging.

Wendy’s continues to return capital to shareholders via a substantial dividend yield; InvestingPro data shows a 7.5% dividend yield and the company has paid dividends for 24 consecutive years. At the same time, InvestingPro indicates the stock is trading slightly below its Fair Value and that 15 analysts have recently revised earnings expectations downward.

In supplemental disclosures tied to the quarter, Wendy’s reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.16 versus an analyst consensus of $0.15. Revenue for the quarter came in at $543 million, slightly exceeding the $537.55 million projection. Despite beating on the headline numbers, fiscal 2026 guidance was reduced, with company commentary pointing to higher general and administrative expenses and increased interest costs as drivers of the shortfall relative to consensus.

Same-store sales were weak across geographies in the fourth quarter, with global comparable sales declining 10.1%. U.S. locations led the deterioration with an 11.3% drop, while international comparables declined 2.0%.

Following the results and outlook, several brokerages adjusted their valuations. RBC Capital and Bernstein SocGen trimmed their price targets to $8.00 and $9.00, respectively, while keeping their existing ratings. KeyBanc reiterated a Sector Weight stance, referencing the soft sales outlook. Analysts and management flagged strategic and market concerns during the earnings call that underpin the more cautious near-term view.


Context for investors

The revisions by BMO and others reflect a blend of modest near-term operational beats and broader momentum challenges, including a sales slump, margin contraction at the restaurant level and guidance that does not meet consensus assumptions. These factors have pressured the share price and prompted downward adjustments to earnings expectations.

Risks

  • Execution risk tied to Project Fresh - successful implementation is uncertain and could affect operational recovery and investor returns. Sectors impacted: Restaurants and Consumer Discretionary.
  • Weak comparable sales and margin compression - sustained declines in same-store sales and restaurant-level margins could pressure revenues and profitability. Sectors impacted: Restaurants and Food Service.
  • Higher operating costs - elevated general and administrative expenses and rising interest costs contributed to guidance shortfalls and could weigh on near-term earnings. Sectors impacted: Consumer Discretionary and Financials (interest cost sensitivity).

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