BMO Capital Markets reduced its 12-month price target for Republic Services (RSG) to $248 from $251 but maintained an Outperform rating after the company released its first guidance for fiscal 2026. The adjustment follows guidance that did not meet market expectations, though the brokerage highlighted multiple avenues that could lift results over time.
Republic Services currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.09 and carries a market value of $68.47 billion. Despite the guidance disappointment, the consensus among analysts remains tilted to the upside, with the mean price objective implying roughly an 11% increase from prevailing share prices.
BMO described the issued guidance as reflective of Republic Services' customary conservative posture and pointed to a set of potential catalysts that could drive better-than-expected outcomes. Those cited include a cyclical recovery in volumes, firmer commodity prices, further margin expansion, and incremental mergers and acquisitions activity.
"In our view, the risk/reward skews positively, but it may require patience for the upside to be realized. We rate RSG Outperform," BMO Capital said.
The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that slightly missed consensus estimates, and its 2026 guidance came in behind that provided by key peers in the sector. A market research note from Bernstein SocGen Group observed that Republic Services' fiscal 2026 outlook lagged those of Waste Management and Waste Connections, though Bernstein upheld a Market Perform rating and raised its price target to $220. Bernstein characterized Republic Services as the safest way to maintain exposure to an improving waste industry and noted that integration of the acquired US Ecology business is largely complete, a contrast the firm drew with integration challenges faced by some competitors.
Other brokerages offered mixed but constructive views. Stifel kept a Buy rating and described 2026 as likely to be a "rebasing year" for Republic Services' revenue and EBITDA growth, suggesting the company's growth might sit at the lower end of the solid waste peer group in the near term. Goldman Sachs commenced coverage with a Buy rating and a $255 target, citing leadership in portfolio quality and operational execution and pointing out that Republic Services' pricing has outpaced peers consistently since 2022.
In aggregate, the street remains generally positive on Republic Services, though near-term metrics and management guidance temper immediate upside expectations. Analysts differ on the pace and timing of recovery, with some emphasizing structural strengths and completed integration work while others flag a transitional 2026 for revenue and earnings growth.
Summary
BMO trimmed its price target on Republic Services to $248 but retained an Outperform rating after 2026 guidance underwhelmed. The stock trades at a P/E of 33.09 and a market cap of $68.47 billion. Analysts point to potential upside from volume recovery, commodity prices, margins, and M&A, while Q4 2025 results slightly missed consensus and some peers provided stronger near-term guidance.
Key points
- BMO lowered its target to $248 from $251 and kept an Outperform rating.
- Consensus mean target implies about 11% upside from current levels; the stock trades at a P/E of 33.09 with market cap of $68.47 billion.
- Analysts see upside sources including cyclical volume recovery, improved commodity values, margin expansion, and incremental M&A; sector implications include waste management and broader industrial services.
Risks and uncertainties
- Republic Services' initial 2026 guidance fell short of expectations, creating near-term downside risk for sentiment in the waste management sector.
- Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings slightly missed consensus, which could pressure earnings momentum and investor confidence in the near term.
- Some firms expect 2026 to be a "rebasing year" for revenue and EBITDA, suggesting potential underperformance relative to solid waste peers during the transition.