BMO Capital on Wednesday adjusted its valuation view of Moody's Corporation, lowering the price target to $480 from $561 while maintaining a Market Perform rating. The updated target remains below the analyst high target of $660, but sits above Moody's then-current trading level of $451.17.
The firm increased its internal forecasts after Moody's delivered results that topped expectations, driven in part by robust debt issuance activity. BMO's estimate upgrades reflect that stronger near-term performance, even as the firm concluded that sector valuation multiples had compressed enough to merit a lower target price.
Company guidance and financial metrics
Moody's management outlined expectations for 2026 that include low-single-digit percentage growth overall, which it said should underpin high-single-digit percentage growth in MIS-rated issuance. The company indicated that mix and pricing dynamics would likely be concentrated in the first half of the year.
On profitability and recurring revenue, management described stable trends in the MA segment and projected high-single-digit percentage annual recurring revenue growth, along with roughly 150 basis points of margin expansion in 2026.
Data strength and analyst activity
Investment data referenced by BMO noted that Moody's has preserved a Piotroski Score of 9, a measure the firm cited as evidence of strong financial health. The brokerage also reported that six analysts had recently revised earnings estimates upward.
Management commented on the competitive landscape for artificial intelligence, stating that proprietary data providers will be advantaged in the AI environment and that Moody's is working to make its data more agent-ready.
Recent results and market reaction
Moody's recorded fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, a performance BMO and other observers attributed to strength across the ratings and analytics segments. Those results reinforced the view that Moody's core operations remain solid and have drawn investor attention, with the potential to affect future analyst projections.
Despite raising earnings estimates, BMO trimmed the target price due to sector-wide multiple compression, illustrating a distinction between company-level momentum and prevailing valuation trends in the market.
Overall, the combination of a Q4 beat, management's 2026 outlook, ongoing AI-related initiatives for data, and BMO's valuation-driven target adjustment frames the current analyst and investor conversation around Moody's.