Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

BMO Lowers FirstService Target to $202 After Q4 Beat, Keeps Outperform Rating

Analyst trims target amid near-term headwinds but highlights long-term compounding potential and buying opportunity

By Priya Menon FSV
BMO Lowers FirstService Target to $202 After Q4 Beat, Keeps Outperform Rating
FSV

BMO Capital reduced its price target for FirstService Corp (FSV) to $202 from $209 while retaining an Outperform rating. The adjustment follows the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which BMO described as a beat driven by stronger-than-expected adjusted EBITDA in the FirstService Residential segment and in-line performance from FirstService Brands. BMO flagged macroeconomic pressure on Roofing and weaker Restoration volumes due to a tougher comparison period and lower storm activity, and expects modest adjusted EBITDA growth in Q1 2026 with expansion through the rest of 2026.

Key Points

  • BMO lowered FirstService’s price target to $202 from $209 but retained an Outperform rating, implying about 30% upside from a $158.68 share price.
  • Fourth-quarter 2025 results beat expectations in key metrics: adjusted EBITDA outperformance in FirstService Residential and in-line performance from FirstService Brands; trailing twelve-month total EBITDA was $535.41 million; EPS of $1.37 and revenue of $1.38 billion exceeded forecasts.
  • BMO expects modest adjusted EBITDA growth in Q1 2026 with expansion through 2026, viewing the current stock pullback as an attractive buying opportunity; dividend growth remains notable with 11 consecutive annual increases and 22% growth in the latest period.

BMO Capital has revised its price target for FirstService Corp (NASDAQ:FSV) down to $202 from $209, while leaving its rating on the stock at Outperform. The new target implies roughly 30% potential upside from FirstService’s current share price of $158.68, with the stock trading notably below its 52-week peak of $209.66.

The analyst move follows FirstService’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial report, which BMO characterized as a "beat". Adjusted EBITDA in the company’s FirstService Residential segment exceeded BMO’s forecasts, while FirstService Brands delivered results that were consistent with expectations. For the last twelve months, FirstService reported total EBITDA of $535.41 million.

FirstService also posted quarterly operating results that outperformed consensus on both the bottom and top lines. The company reported earnings per share of $1.37, ahead of the analyst projection of $1.33. Revenues came in at $1.38 billion versus a projected $1.36 billion.

BMO highlighted several near-term pressures. The firm said macroeconomic uncertainty had a dampening effect on FirstService’s Roofing operations. The Restoration business, meanwhile, faced a challenging year-over-year comparison and reduced storm activity, which together weighed on volumes and results.

Looking forward, BMO expects adjusted EBITDA growth to be modest in the first quarter of 2026 as broader macroeconomic headwinds persist. The firm projects growth to build across the remainder of 2026, however, and continues to view FirstService’s long-term compounding capability as attractive. BMO described the recent pullback in the stock as a "particularly attractive buying opportunity."

Dividend dynamics are another data point noted in the coverage. InvestingPro data referenced by the analyst shows FirstService has increased its dividend for 11 consecutive years, with dividend growth of 22% in the most recent period.


Context for investors

  • Price-target revision stems from post-quarter reassessment rather than a change in rating; Outperform maintained.
  • Operational segmentation matters: Residential exceeded expectations, Brands were in-line, Roofing and Restoration faced headwinds.
  • Near-term EBITDA growth is expected to be muted, with the firm anticipating a pickup later in the year.

This report summarizes BMO Capital’s published view and FirstService’s reported results. Where the company’s results or the analyst commentary are limited in scope, those limitations are reflected in the points above rather than supplemented with additional assumptions.

Risks

  • Macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on the Roofing segment could pressure operational performance and near-term profitability - impacts the construction and maintenance services sector.
  • Restoration revenue and EBITDA are vulnerable to lower storm activity and difficult year-over-year comparisons, introducing volatility tied to weather-related demand and insurance cycles.
  • Modest adjusted EBITDA growth expected in Q1 2026 suggests near-term earnings sensitivity to macro headwinds, which could influence investor sentiment and valuation in the services and facilities-management markets.

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