BMO Capital Markets has reduced its price target on Domino’s Pizza shares (NYSE: DPZ) to $500 from its prior level while preserving an Outperform rating on the stock. The firm attributed the move to constrained visibility for comparable sales in the second half of 2026, and it flagged multiple overhangs stemming from that lack of clarity.
The BMO action sits amid a broader patchwork of analyst sentiment. The consensus target collected by the market points to roughly 22% upside from current levels, but the range of analyst targets is wide, stretching from $340 to $601.
Domino’s released fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results that showed mixed topline and bottom-line dynamics. Diluted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $5.35, slightly below the consensus estimate of $5.38, with the difference driven by a mark-to-market adjustment related to a China franchisee. Operating income, by contrast, beat expectations, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. comparable sales and favorable general and administrative expense outcomes.
For the trailing twelve months, diluted EPS totaled $17.57. Revenue rose nearly 5% year-over-year to $4.94 billion.
Looking ahead, the company set 2026 guidance on a basis that excludes a 53rd week. The outlook calls for retail sales growth of 4% to 6%, operating income expansion of 6% to 8%, and U.S. comparable sales growth of around 3%. The company said its guidance aligns with its internal algorithm and excludes the impact of its digital platform expansion.
BMO reiterated expectations that Domino’s will continue to capture market share, forecasting an acceleration of share gains in 2026. The firm kept its Outperform rating and cited company initiatives it believes will support share gains, quicker unit development, and potential upside to earnings.
Independent platform analysis indicated the stock is trading near its Fair Value, and that the company’s Financial Health Score is rated as "GOOD." The platform noted that more comprehensive research is available covering this stock and a broad universe of U.S. equities.
Other broker actions and company updates accompanied the quarter. Benchmark kept its Buy rating and retained a $540 price target following the results. BTIG also maintained a Buy recommendation with a $500 price objective, noting that U.S. same-store sales growth of 3.0% met internal targets and exceeded analyst expectations. Separately, Evercore ISI raised its price target on Domino’s to $510, citing persistent U.S. market share gains.
Financial metrics for the final quarter of fiscal 2025 reinforced the company’s operational momentum. Revenue for the period reached $1.54 billion, above the consensus of $1.52 billion, and EBITDA was $323 million, versus an expected $320 million. U.S. same-store sales grew 3.7%, outpacing analyst projections of 3.47%, with the company attributing improvements to value-focused promotions and new menu items.
Alongside the financial report, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. named Andrew Gregory, a long-tenured executive from McDonald’s Corp., as its incoming global CEO. Gregory will assume the position after completing existing commitments to McDonald’s, with that transition expected by August 5.
The juxtaposition of solid near-term operating results and guidance with uncertain comp visibility in the latter half of fiscal 2026 has left analysts balancing optimism on market share and unit growth against the potential for late-year overhangs. BMO’s trimmed target reflects that balance: a recognition of underlying business strength paired with caution about uncertain comparable-sales trajectories.
Investors and market participants will likely monitor comparable-sales trends and management’s execution on share gains and unit expansion, as these items are central to the divergent analyst views and the range of price targets currently assigned to the stock.