BMO Capital has nudged up its price target for NOV Inc. (NYSE: NOV) to $20.00 from $19.00 but left its rating unchanged at Market Perform, following the oilfield services company's fourth-quarter 2025 report. NOV shares are trading at $18.93, below a 52-week peak of $19.51, after delivering a notable 60.55% return over the past six months, according to InvestingPro data.
The analyst house described the Q4 results as broadly positive, yet its reaction to management's forward-looking metrics was cautious. For 2026, BMO flagged mixed revisions: revenue expectations were lifted slightly, EBITDA projections were essentially unchanged, and EPS estimates were lowered as a result of higher taxes.
Valuation stood out in BMO's assessment. InvestingPro data indicates NOV is trading at a P/E ratio of 48.6, with consensus analyst forecasts pointing to EPS of $1.00 for fiscal 2026. The research note also noted that four analysts have recently trimmed their earnings estimates.
Management's guidance, BMO wrote, tracks closely with commentary from peer oilfield services companies. Activity levels, revenues, and margins are expected to be flat to modestly lower, the firm said, with a book-to-bill ratio near 1.0x implying order intake is roughly keeping pace with revenue. That posture is consistent with InvestingPro figures showing NOV's revenue fell 1.42% over the past twelve months, and that forecasts call for an additional roughly 1% revenue decline in fiscal 2026.
Free cash flow expectations were also trimmed at the broker, reflecting assumptions of weaker free cash flow conversion than previously modeled. Looking beyond 2026, BMO anticipates an improving industry backdrop as the market moves into 2027, with offshore segments showing stronger momentum.
Despite raising the price target, the firm retained its Market Perform rating, citing valuation metrics that align with its outlook and the view that peer companies may deliver stronger financial results in the near term than NOV.
Separately, NOV's reported fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 included an EPS of $0.21, short of the $0.25 analysts had expected, while revenue arrived at $2.28 billion, above expectations. The revenue beat was offset by the EPS shortfall, which has prompted investor concern and increased scrutiny of the company’s guidance. As of the report, analysts had not publicly revised their coverage ratings in response to the earnings release.
Taken together, BMO's measured target increase and unchanged rating reflect a balance between the company's recent revenue outperformance and lingering concerns around earnings durability, valuation, and cash conversion. The broker's outlook points to modest industry improvement in 2027, but in the nearer term it expects activity and financial metrics to remain largely flat to slightly lower.
Contextual note: The views and figures cited above are drawn from BMO Capital's published note and InvestingPro data as referenced in the company and analyst disclosures accompanying NOV's fourth-quarter 2025 results.