Overview
BMO Capital on Monday raised its price target for Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) to $225.00 from $200.00 and maintained an Outperform recommendation on the shares. At the time of the note, Marathon stock was trading at $203.71, narrowly below its 52-week high of $204.37, after a 14.75% gain over the prior week.
Results and guidance that moved the needle
The firm cited Marathon’s better-than-expected fourth quarter 2025 results and the company’s first quarter 2026 guidance as the drivers for the target increase. Marathon reported diluted earnings per share of $13.22 for the trailing twelve months, translating to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.42 based on current pricing.
BMO adjusted its forward financial model upward, increasing 2026 and subsequent earnings per share and EBITDA forecasts. Specifically, the firm raised its 2026 EBITDA forecast by 3% and its forecast for cash flow from operations by 2%, attributing most of the lift to the refining segment.
At the same time, BMO trimmed its midstream EBITDA estimate by 1%. Despite that small reduction, the analyst note expressed continued support for MPLX’s project pipeline, which BMO says underpins an expected 5% EBITDA expansion and double-digit distribution growth for MPLX.
Valuation perspective and refining positioning
BMO’s sum-of-the-parts valuation for Marathon falls in a range near $215 to $235. The firm retained a constructive stance on the refining macro outlook and highlighted Marathon’s high-margin, advantaged refining footprint across the PADD 2, 3 and 5 regions as a competitive strength.
Market and peer reactions
Marathon’s fourth quarter of 2025 results were well ahead of consensus, with EPS of $4.07 versus the $3.01 estimate and revenue of $33.42 billion compared with an anticipated $32.86 billion. Following those results, other brokerages also revised their targets: Wells Fargo raised its price target to $217 and kept an Overweight rating, while TD Cowen increased its target to $198 and maintained a Buy rating, citing solid refining gross margin performance.
Contextual note
The combination of stronger-than-expected quarterly results, reinforced guidance and upward revisions to 2026 financial assumptions drove BMO’s decision to lift its price target, even as a modest adjustment was made to midstream expectations.