BMO Capital Markets has adjusted its outlook for Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE), raising the stock price target to $14.00 from $12.00 while leaving its Market Perform rating unchanged. The brokerage highlighted the company’s stronger fourth-quarter results and improving ethanol fundamentals as reasons for the updated valuation, even as it maintained a cautious overall stance.
At the time of the update, Green Plains shares were trading at $12.66. The stock has rallied more than 72% over the last six months and was trading close to a 52-week high of $14.23.
Central to BMO’s reassessment was Green Plains’ fourth-quarter EBITDA of $49 million, a result that outpaced the consensus estimate of $35 million. BMO attributed the upside largely to better ethanol performance, supported in part by hedges and the inclusion of $28 million in 45Z tax credits in the quarter’s results. Data from InvestingPro shows the company’s last twelve months (LTM) EBITDA standing at $14.21 million, underscoring the materiality of the recent quarterly improvement relative to the prior trailing period.
On operational metrics, BMO noted Green Plains’ consolidated crush margin of roughly $0.25 EBITDA per gallon, which surpassed the firm’s prior estimate of about $0.14. Combined with the company’s expectations around monetizing 45Z assets—estimated at $188 million—BMO said the consensus 2026 EBITDA forecast of $160 million looks likely to require meaningful upward revision.
Despite the positive signals on EBITDA and crush margins, InvestingPro flagged a lingering weakness in gross profit margins, which are measured at 6.55% currently. BMO’s move raised its estimates and the target price but stopped short of recommending an upgrade in rating, leaving the Market Perform designation in place while calling attention to several drivers of potential value.
In its notes, BMO described Green Plains as positioned to benefit from improved operations and execution, firm ethanol fundamentals and carbon-related benefits. The firm also emphasized that management’s next strategic question will be how to deploy the company’s rising cash generation.
Separately, Green Plains reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17, well above the analyst consensus of $0.02, signaling stronger-than-expected profitability on a per-share basis. Revenue for the quarter came in at $428.8 million, below the anticipated $479.73 million and representing a 26.6% decline from the prior year. The contrast between a beat on EPS and a revenue shortfall highlights that cost management contributed materially to the quarter’s earnings performance.
These mixed results have drawn attention from investors and analysts because they combine solid EPS execution with softer top-line performance. BMO’s note suggests the recent improvement in EBITDA and ethanol margins could prompt analysts to revise forward estimates, though the firm did not change its Market Perform rating at this time. How Green Plains chooses to allocate increasing cash flow was flagged as an immediate strategic decision that could influence future analyst ratings and investor sentiment.
Overall, BMO’s action reflects a recalibration of expectations after a stronger quarter, balanced by remaining margin and revenue challenges that leave the firm cautious about elevating its recommendation beyond Market Perform.