Analyst Ratings February 19, 2026

BMO Lifts Booking Holdings Price Target After Strong Q4; Mixed Analyst Views Persist

Upgrade in target follows better-than-expected fourth-quarter results even as guidance and planned investments temper margin outlook

By Priya Menon BKNG
BMO Lifts Booking Holdings Price Target After Strong Q4; Mixed Analyst Views Persist
BKNG

BMO Capital Markets raised its price target on Booking Holdings to $6,200 from $6,000 and kept an Outperform rating after the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat Street expectations on bookings and adjusted EBITDA. While the top-line outlook for 2026 topped consensus, margins came in below Street expectations as management earmarked $700 million for strategic investments. Analyst reactions were varied, underscoring a split view of Booking Holdings' path amid technological investments and demand strength.

Key Points

  • BMO raised its price target on Booking Holdings to $6,200 from $6,000 and maintained an Outperform rating.
  • Q4 2025 results beat Street expectations on bookings (by 3%) and adjusted EBITDA (by 4%), with room nights up 9% and gross bookings up 16% year-over-year to $43 billion.
  • Management plans $700 million in additional spending on GenAI, Connected Trip initiatives, and growth in Asia and the U.S., partially offset by efficiencies and Transformation Program savings - impacting margins and near-term adjusted EBITDA expectations.

Overview

BMO Capital Markets has increased its price target for Booking Holdings to $6,200 from $6,000 while maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares. That target sits well above the company’s most recent trading level of $4,270. Data referenced from InvestingPro show analyst targets spanning a wide range, from $4,495 up to $7,656, and indicate that the stock is trading below InvestingPro’s Fair Value model despite a year-to-date decline of 20.3 percent.

Quarterly performance and margins

Booking Holdings delivered solid fourth-quarter 2025 results, with bookings and adjusted EBITDA coming in ahead of Street expectations by 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Demand was described as healthy across all regions. The company reported an impressive gross profit margin of 87 percent and generated $9.8 billion in EBITDA over the last twelve months, which together reflect strong operating performance.

On the earnings front, adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $48.80, beating analyst estimates by $0.61. Revenue for the quarter reached $6.35 billion, above the expected $6.12 billion. The company reported a 9 percent increase in room nights and gross bookings rose 16 percent year-over-year to $43 billion - roughly an 11 percent increase on a constant currency basis. Overall revenue was up 16 percent versus the prior year, a gain helped by favorable currency movements.

Guidance and planned investments

Booking Holdings provided first-quarter 2026 and full-year 2026 guidance that exceeded consensus on the top line, but guidance missed Street expectations on margins. Management outlined plans to invest an additional $700 million in strategic initiatives. Those earmarked funds are intended to support developments in GenAI capabilities, progress toward the company’s Connected Trip vision, and expansion efforts in Asia and the U.S. Management said these investments will be partially offset by efficiency measures and savings from the company’s Transformation Program.

BMO adjusted its model in response to the results by raising its gross bookings estimates for 2026 and 2027, while only slightly increasing adjusted EBITDA projections. The modest move in EBITDA forecasts reflects the tension between revenue strength and the additional incremental spending that is expected to weigh on margins.

Analyst reactions and market sentiment

Following the quarterly release, analyst responses were mixed. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target for Booking Holdings to $4,495 from $5,830 and kept a Neutral rating, citing concerns related to AI. Citizens reiterated a Market Perform rating and highlighted the company’s significant exposure to independent and boutique hotels as a mitigating factor against potential AI-driven disruption. These differing positions illustrate the varied views among analysts about how technological developments and spending will influence Booking Holdings’ future performance.

Company profile

Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) operates online travel and restaurant reservation services.


Bottom line

BMO’s higher price target follows a quarter of outperformance on bookings and adjusted EBITDA, and the company’s reported margins and LTM EBITDA underscore strong operating results. However, planned strategic investments and guidance below Street margin expectations have kept analyst sentiment mixed.

Risks

  • Margin pressure - 2026 guidance topped the street on revenue but came in below Street expectations on margins, indicating near-term margin risk for the travel and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Incremental investment risk - the planned $700 million in strategic spending could limit near-term EBITDA upside despite supporting long-term initiatives, affecting investor returns in the technology and travel services space.
  • Technology-related uncertainty - analyst concerns over AI and its impact on the business model introduce strategic uncertainty for Booking Holdings and related hospitality and travel booking platforms.

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