Overview
BMO Capital has reiterated an Outperform rating on McDonald’s and left its price target unchanged at $360.00 after the company released fourth-quarter 2025 results. That $360 target sits within the broader analyst range of $260 to $380, while McDonald’s common stock was trading at $323.21, about 1% below its 52-week high of $328.06 at the time of the report.
Quarterly performance
McDonald’s reported adjusted fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $3.12, which the company presented as exceeding a consensus estimate of $3.04. In another reference to analyst expectations, the results were also described as surpassing an analysts' forecast of $3.03. The quarter benefited from stronger-than-expected top-line trends, with global comparable sales outperforming forecasts and an especially strong showing in the U.S., where positive guest counts were noted.
Over the trailing twelve months, McDonald’s recorded diluted earnings per share of $11.72 and sustained a gross profit margin of 57.42%.
Analyst activity and valuation signal
Data from InvestingPro cited that 15 analysts recently increased their earnings estimates for the upcoming period, signaling growing analyst confidence in McDonald’s near-term performance. The same InvestingPro data also points out that, on its calculated Fair Value basis, the stock appears slightly overvalued relative to that benchmark.
BMO’s near-term outlook and rationale
BMO Capital noted that while underlying operating performance continues to trend favorably, the company’s guidance implies that consensus earnings-per-share estimates for the first quarter of 2026 and the full year 2026 should be nudged lower on a modest basis. Those downward adjustments are expected to reflect higher general and administrative expenses and increased interest costs. Despite these expected near-term adjustments, BMO highlighted McDonald’s moderate leverage position and pointed to a solid financial health score as measured by InvestingPro metrics.
The firm maintained its $360 price objective on the basis of largely unchanged 2026 EPS projections, and it cited weather as a contributing factor that could produce sequential deceleration in comparable sales in the first quarter of 2026.
Investment thesis
BMO reiterated the Outperform rating on the view that McDonald’s competitive advantages, combined with visible sales drivers, should sustain durable top-line momentum and further market share gains over time.
Additional reported metrics
In related financial disclosure for the fourth quarter of 2025, McDonald’s reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.12 and revenue of $7.01 billion, surpassing an expected $6.81 billion. Despite the quarter’s positive revenue and earnings outcomes, the company faces investor questions about its future growth trajectory. At the time of the reporting, analyst firms had not publicly issued upgrades or downgrades in response to the earnings release.
Key points
- BMO Capital reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a $360 price target after McDonald’s reported a $3.12 adjusted EPS for Q4 2025 and revenue of $7.01 billion.
- Global comparable sales exceeded expectations, driven by U.S. performance that included positive guest counts; trailing-twelve-month diluted EPS was $11.72 and gross margin was 57.42%.
- InvestingPro shows 15 analysts raising earnings estimates while also indicating the stock may be slightly overvalued versus its Fair Value; BMO expects modest downward pressure on 2026 consensus EPS due to higher G&A and interest costs.
Risks and uncertainties
- Near-term consensus EPS may be revised downward for Q1 2026 and full-year 2026 because of anticipated increases in general and administrative expenses and interest costs - a risk for equity valuation and earnings estimates in the consumer discretionary and restaurant sectors.
- Seasonal or weather-related softening could cause sequential deceleration in comparable sales in Q1 2026, affecting short-term top-line momentum in the quick-service restaurant industry.
- Valuation risk: InvestingPro data suggests the stock appears slightly overvalued relative to its calculated Fair Value, which could limit upside for investors if estimates are not met.