Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

BMO Keeps Outperform on Cameco, C$170 Target; Flags Near-Term EBITDA Drift and Westinghouse Upside

Analyst retains bullish rating after Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance while trimming short-term EBITDA on production and purchase dynamics

By Caleb Monroe CCO CCJ
BMO Keeps Outperform on Cameco, C$170 Target; Flags Near-Term EBITDA Drift and Westinghouse Upside
CCO CCJ

BMO Capital reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a C$170.00 price target on Cameco Corp. following the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results and 2026 guidance. The bank trimmed near-term EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 citing lower-than-expected production at McArthur River and increased purchases, while highlighting upside tied to Westinghouse and improving sentiment for new nuclear.

Key Points

  • BMO Capital reaffirmed Outperform and a C$170.00 price target on Cameco after Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance.
  • Near-term EBITDA estimates were reduced - down 7% for 2026 and 1% for 2027 - due to lower production at McArthur River and increased purchases; LTM EBITDA is $666 million.
  • BMO highlighted upside tied to Westinghouse and improving sentiment for new nuclear, expecting these factors to support further multiple expansion; sectors impacted include nuclear energy and materials/mining.

BMO Capital has reiterated an Outperform recommendation on Cameco Corp. (TSE:CCO) (NYSE:CCJ) and kept a C$170.00 price objective in place after reviewing Cameco’s fourth-quarter 2025 results and its guidance for 2026.

The analyst note includes a near-term reduction to EBITDA forecasts. BMO lowered its 2026 EBITDA estimate by 7% and trimmed the 2027 forecast by 1%, citing weaker-than-expected output from the McArthur River mine and a rise in purchases as the drivers of the adjustment. Cameco’s reported EBITDA for the last twelve months stands at $666 million, and consensus analyst estimates point to diluted EPS of $1.33 for fiscal 2026.

Despite the cuts to near-term profitability metrics, BMO signaled continued confidence in the company’s longer-term trajectory. The firm pointed to potential upside tied to Westinghouse, noting that a final agreement with the U.S. Government could be signed soon. That prospective deal is a core element of BMO’s constructive view.

Investor sentiment toward new nuclear has, in BMO’s view, been improving, and the bank described Cameco’s growth outlook as attractive. The research team indicated that these factors should support a continued re-rating of the stock.

Market context also featured in recent trading: nuclear energy names saw gains in premarket activity after U.S. President Donald Trump voiced support for nuclear power during remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, saying, "We’re very much into world of nuclear energy." Those comments have drawn attention from investors who follow policy developments that could affect the industry, though noted market moves were not the primary focus of the analysis.


Background metrics and market signals

Cameco is a major uranium producer with a market valuation approaching $48 billion. Over the past year the company’s stock has appreciated roughly 140%, according to InvestingPro data. BMO’s update balances a modest downgrade to short-term EBITDA with a view that improving nuclear sentiment and potential strategic developments related to Westinghouse present upside.

What analysts and investors will watch next

Key items to monitor include operational performance at McArthur River, the scale and timing of external purchases, and any confirmation of a final Westinghouse arrangement with the U.S. Government. Each of those elements bears directly on near-term earnings and on the strategic case BMO outlines for a higher valuation over time.

Risks

  • Lower-than-expected production at McArthur River - this operational risk directly affects Cameco’s near-term earnings and the materials/mining sector.
  • Higher purchase volumes increasing costs - elevated purchasing to cover supply shortfalls can depress margins and EBITDA in the near term, affecting investors in uranium and energy commodities.
  • Policy and deal uncertainty around Westinghouse and government agreements - the timing and terms of any final agreement with the U.S. Government remain uncertain and could materially influence market sentiment in the nuclear energy sector.

More from Analyst Ratings

DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026 BWS Financial Boosts A10 Networks Price Target Citing AI-Driven Network Traffic Feb 20, 2026