BMO Capital announced a reduction in its price target for S&P Global (SPGI) to $482.00, down from $601.00, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The revision follows S&P Global's fourth-quarter 2025 report, which delivered a mixed set of results and guidance that fell short of some Street expectations.
In its note, BMO highlighted that the company's 2026 guidance came in below consensus forecasts. The firm pointed specifically to lower growth assumptions for Market Intelligence and Ratings revenue as primary drivers of the downgraded outlook, along with margins that were a touch weaker than BMO had anticipated.
S&P Global's reported fourth-quarter 2025 results illustrated the mixed picture the analyst referenced. On an earnings-per-share basis, the company posted $4.30, a $0.02 shortfall versus the forecast of $4.32. Revenue, however, modestly outpaced expectations, with $3.92 billion against an anticipated $3.90 billion.
The combination of slightly higher revenue and a marginal EPS miss provides a nuanced snapshot of the quarter - revenue growth was present, but earnings came in just under projection. The company experienced a notable move in pre-market trading in response to the release, as market participants digested the disparity between the top-line beat and the bottom-line shortfall.
BMO also reminded investors of a historical pattern in S&P Global's guidance behavior. Over the past decade, the firm noted, the company has missed consensus guidance for the year ahead roughly half the time in its fourth-quarter earnings reports. That said, S&P Global has had a tendency to raise guidance later in the year when Ratings and Issuance prove stronger than initially expected.
During the earnings call, concerns about the potential effects of generative AI on S&P Global's businesses featured prominently. While that topic emerged as a key focus, BMO indicated that after reducing its estimates modestly, it views current valuations as a reasonable entry point for investors.
Contextual takeaways
- S&P Global posted mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results: revenue slightly beat estimates while EPS missed by $0.02.
- BMO lowered its price target from $601 to $482 but retained an Outperform rating, citing lower 2026 growth assumptions for Market Intelligence and Ratings and slightly weaker margins.
- Management discussion around generative AI risks was prominent on the earnings call; BMO nonetheless views valuations as attractive after trimming estimates.