BMO Capital has lowered its fair value estimate for Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) to $150.00 from $190.00 but has kept an Outperform rating on the e-commerce platform provider, according to the firm's research note. BMO analyst Thanos Moschopoulos told clients the adjustment reflects a recent valuation reset across software names rather than changes unique to Shopify.
The company’s shares were trading at $112.05 at the time of the report, a level that represents a drop of more than 30% so far this year. Data cited by analysts indicates Shopify is sitting slightly below its calculated Fair Value and that technical momentum tools such as the Relative Strength Index point toward oversold territory.
BMO expects Shopify to deliver "a solid quarter" for Q4/25. The firm's view is underpinned by market share gains captured during the U.S. holiday shopping period, where e-commerce sales modestly beat expectations. Those trends, BMO says, should support near-term revenue performance.
Looking beyond the quarter, BMO projects the growth drivers that supported Shopify through fiscal 2025 will remain in place into fiscal 2026. The firm also highlights increasing interest from brands and retailers in what it calls agentic commerce - a capability BMO views as a competitive advantage for Shopify given the company’s early leadership in the area.
Market reaction to Shopify's prospects has been mixed among sell-side firms ahead of the company’s anticipated Q4/25 earnings. Citizens has retained a Market Outperform rating and anticipates results that will beat expectations and prompt an upward revision to guidance, pointing to market share gains and steady consumer spending as supporting factors.
RBC Capital also reiterated an Outperform rating, citing data consistent with a strong Q4 that could drive results above consensus. Separately, Scotiabank upgraded Shopify to Sector Outperform and lifted its price target to $200, explicitly flagging the transformational potential of Agentic Commerce for retail customers.
Not all firms are bullish. Wolfe Research cut its rating from Outperform to Peerperform in its 2026 outlook, noting reasons for the change in its coverage note. Despite that downgrade, RBC continues to include Shopify among its top Canadian technology ideas for 2026 alongside Constellation and Kinaxis.
The aggregate picture emerging from the broker community is one of both optimism and caution: confidence that near-term demand and product-led initiatives can sustain momentum, tempered by broader sector valuation pressures and differing interpretations of longer-term competitive dynamics.
Contextual note: The commentary above is drawn from recent analyst reports and market data related to Shopify’s valuation, near-term performance expectations, and analyst ratings ahead of its Q4/25 report. The range of views among research houses highlights ongoing debate over how sector-level valuation shifts and the maturation of new commerce models will affect the company's trajectory.