BMO Capital has lowered its price target for Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) to $45.00, down from $57.00, while retaining a Market Perform rating on the Danish drugmaker. The action comes as shares of NVO have fallen roughly 27% over the past week and were trading at $43.34, only marginally above the 52-week low of $43.08.
In its commentary BMO described the company’s results as "a challenging quarter" and highlighted "very real headwinds" facing the business. InvestingPro data cited in the note indicate the stock has lost nearly 50% of its value over the last 12 months, though technical measures are said to point toward oversold conditions.
Key to BMO’s reassessment is the firm’s read of Novo Nordisk’s adjusted sales guidance, which implies a year-over-year decline of 5% to 13% at constant exchange rates. The bank attributes the weaker top-line outlook to pricing pressures and volume erosion in the company’s incretin franchise as Novo Nordisk works to recover market share.
Despite these near-term concerns, the company’s valuation and shareholder returns retain some strength: Novo Nordisk is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.76 and has raised its dividend for eight consecutive years, producing a current yield of 1.9%.
BMO also referenced commentary on the commercial rollout of Wegovy, describing it as "directionally positive" with prescriptions continuing to trend well. The firm concluded, however, that this momentum was "not enough to meaningfully lift the outlook into the new year." The analyst note added that Friday’s call "leaves significant work into 2026" and expects the company’s business story to "remain challenged" going forward.
On the fundamentals reported for the fourth quarter of 2025, Novo Nordisk outperformed consensus on both earnings and sales. The company reported earnings per share of $1.02 versus estimates of $0.92, and revenue of $12.53 billion compared with expectations of $11.99 billion. Even with those upside surprises, BMO maintained its Market Perform view.
BMO flagged additional pricing pressures tied to channel mix dynamics and Most Favored Nation pricing provisions, warning these could drive a 10% to 15% decline in realized pricing. The firm noted there are offsetting factors the company believes could provide relief, including potential volume gains and upside if generic competition is delayed in certain international markets.
Investors and market participants will be watching how the company navigates the combination of pricing headwinds, market-share restoration efforts in its incretin portfolio, and the commercial pathway for Wegovy as it moves into 2026. For now, BMO’s adjusted target and commentary underscore a more cautious near-term stance despite recent earnings beats.