BMO Capital Markets lowered its price objective on Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) to $24.00 from $30.00 on Wednesday, but left its rating at Outperform. At the time of the note, Harley-Davidson shares were trading near $20.43, carrying a reported price-to-earnings ratio of 7.24.
The analyst action follows the company's initial guidance for 2026, which BMO's Tristan M. Thomas-Martin described as coming in "well below expectations." That shortfall, according to the note, is driven by a set of deliberate reset measures the company is executing.
Those measures, as described by the analyst and cited by the company, include ongoing channel right-sizing, a more measured ramp-up at Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS), and a series of initiatives intended to strengthen the dealer network. Management has not provided extensive detail ahead of a new strategic plan scheduled for release in May, but it did highlight an expected $150 million in operational savings and a directional emphasis on affordability.
Analyst consensus is mixed. The aggregated recommendation stands at 2.4 on the scale used, with price targets from the analyst community spanning $18 to $32. Despite the trimmed target from BMO, the firm maintained a positive stance on the name, arguing that reversing some prior strategic choices is a reasonable course for the company.
Harley-Davidson also reported fourth-quarter 2025 financial results that further complicated investor sentiment. The company delivered earnings per share of -2.44, which missed expectations of -1.06 by a large margin. That represented a surprise of -130.19% versus the consensus EPS estimate. Revenue, however, came in slightly above projections at $496.0 million compared with an expected $486.61 million.
The earnings shortfall was substantially larger than analysts had anticipated and is a principal contributor to current investor concern. At the same time, modestly stronger-than-expected revenue provides a partial offset to the negative EPS surprise.
Context for investors
- Price target reduced to $24 from $30; Outperform rating retained.
- Reset actions cited include channel right-sizing, slower HDFS ramp, and dealer network strengthening.
- Q4 2025 EPS of -2.44 missed estimates while revenue modestly exceeded forecasts.