Overview
BMO Capital on Friday moved Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) from a Market Perform rating to Underperform and reduced its price target to $95.00 from $110.00. The shares are trading at $128.43, which is materially higher than BMO's new target and slightly above InvestingPro's calculated Fair Value.
Rationale cited by BMO
In its note, BMO flagged what it views as a lack of investment and strategic focus on building a compelling digital proposition for Dollar Tree. The firm said this shortfall could constrain top-line growth over time. BMO also highlighted what it characterized as potentially underappreciated dis-synergies that could introduce additional risk to the company’s objectives for margin expansion.
Separately, BMO framed its valuation around a lower multiple: the new $95 price target equates to roughly 15 times BMO’s forecast for fiscal 2027 (calendar 2026) earnings per share, down from the prior multiple of 17 times tied to the $110 target. The firm also noted that its earnings estimates remain below the prevailing Wall Street consensus.
Sales and analyst expectations
The downgrade aligns with InvestingPro data showing analysts expect a 37% sales decline for Dollar Tree in the current fiscal year. That projected drop sits behind the caution articulated by BMO regarding the retailer’s growth trajectory if digital initiatives and investment do not accelerate.
Corporate development
In other corporate news, Dollar Tree has named Daniel Delrosario as Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, effective January 13, 2026. The company said Delrosario will oversee investor relations and treasury functions and will report to Chief Financial Officer Stewart Glendinning.
Where other analysts stand
Analyst views on Dollar Tree diverge. Deutsche Bank reiterated a Hold rating with a $126 price target. Truist Securities raised its price target to $149 and maintained a Buy rating, citing the company’s growth potential despite noting some weakness in third-quarter traffic. Truist also reiterated a Buy rating with a $136 price target, attributing the transaction slowdown to temporary store-level disruptions and shifts in consumer purchasing patterns.
Notably, another BMO note referenced in coverage had previously shown a Market Perform rating with a $110 price target while expressing concerns about Dollar Tree’s sales strategy and digital growth capabilities, illustrating differing interpretations of the retailer’s near-term outlook across research notes.
Market context
The move by BMO places its view at odds with the current market price and with certain Wall Street peers, highlighting an ongoing debate among analysts about the sustainability of Dollar Tree’s sales and margin prospects amid the company’s digital capabilities and operational dynamics.
This article presents reported analyst views, company disclosures, and consensus sales expectations as described in the available notes.