Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

BMO Capital Sticks with Market Perform on Lyft, Keeps $23 Target as Mixed Signals Persist

Analyst reaffirms neutral stance after quarterly results show solid bookings and margin gains but guidance misses on EBITDA

By Nina Shah LYFT
BMO Capital Sticks with Market Perform on Lyft, Keeps $23 Target as Mixed Signals Persist
LYFT

BMO Capital has maintained a Market Perform rating on Lyft with an unchanged $23 price target after the company released quarterly results that mixed healthy bookings and margin expansion with guidance that falls short on adjusted EBITDA. The shares trade well below the target, reflecting ongoing investor skepticism amid uneven ride volume growth and competitive pressures in the rideshare market.

Key Points

  • BMO Capital reaffirmed Market Perform and a $23 price target for Lyft, implying meaningful upside from the $14.79 share price.
  • Quarterly results showed bookings of $5.07 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $147 million - the latter beating expectations by about 5% - supported by record active riders and 240 basis points of margin expansion.
  • Guidance was mixed: bookings midpoint matched consensus but adjusted EBITDA guidance of $130 million was $10 million below Street estimates; EPS is forecast at $1.26 for fiscal 2025. Sectors impacted include transportation and consumer discretionary markets.

BMO Capital reiterated its Market Perform rating and $23.00 price objective on Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) in the wake of the companys most recent quarterly report. At the stocks then-current level of $14.79, the target implies a notable uptick from the market price.

The ride-hailing company reported bookings of $5.07 billion, a figure that matched Street expectations. Revenue came in slightly ahead of consensus once a one-time adjustment for legal and regulatory reserves - recorded as a contra-revenue item - was taken into account. Lyfts enterprise value stands at $5.85 billion and the company has sustained 14.9% revenue growth over the last twelve months.

Operational performance included adjusted EBITDA of $147 million, which topped analyst estimates by roughly 5%. BMO Capital analyst Brian J. Pitz highlighted that record-high active rider counts supported a 19% year-over-year increase in bookings, while managements operational discipline contributed to margin expansion of 240 basis points.

Balance-sheet indicators noted in the report show Lyft holding more cash than debt, a position often interpreted as financial stability, even as the company trades at a relatively elevated price-to-earnings ratio of 46.7.

Looking ahead, Lyfts guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 included a bookings midpoint that sat in line with consensus expectations. However, the mid-point of adjusted EBITDA guidance was $130 million, coming in $10 million shy of Street forecasts. Management expects net income to grow over the coming year, with earnings per share projected at $1.26 for fiscal 2025.

In its note, BMO Capital identified several growth levers it expects to support Lyfts forward trajectory - business travel, strategic partnerships and higher-value transportation modes - while retaining its Market Perform rating and the $23 target.


Outside of BMO Capitals view, multiple brokerages have revised their price targets in recent weeks amid mixed operational signals and pressure on ride volumes. RBC Capital trimmed its target to $22 after describing the fourth quarter as very challenging, when Lyft reportedly missed ride volume estimates by about 5%.

Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $17, flagging concerns about Lyfts growth path relative to peers. Wells Fargo set a $18 target following a reported global rides growth rate of 11%, a pace that fell short of the companys own mid-to-high teens outlook. Piper Sandler moved its target to $20, citing weaker ride volume trends despite bookings and EBITDA that were generally in line. KeyBanc kept a Sector Weight rating and pointed to solid bookings and EBITDA, though it noted those results were modestly below consensus.

Collectively, these adjustments underscore the competitive headwinds and uneven volume recovery that Lyft is navigating in the rideshare segment.


Contextual note - an independent analysis indicates Lyft may be trading below what some valuation approaches imply, which aligns with the upside suggested by the $23 target, though analyst opinions remain divided on the sustainability of growth drivers.

Risks

  • Ride volume weakness - Several firms have cut targets after Lyft missed or underdelivered on ride volume growth, signaling demand risk for the transportation sector.
  • Competitive pressure - Comparisons to peers and concerns over growth trajectory could continue to weigh on Lyfts market performance, affecting investor sentiment in mobility services.
  • Guidance shortfall - Adjusted EBITDA guidance that falls short of consensus introduces earnings uncertainty, which may influence credit and equity market assessments of Lyft.

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