Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated its Outperform recommendation on Robinhood Markets and maintained a $160.00 price target after the fintech reported fourth-quarter results. The firm’s stance comes despite a quarterly revenue shortfall driven by softer cryptocurrency activity, and amid significant recent stock volatility.
Robinhood's shares were trading at $74.74, giving the company a market capitalization of $67.33 billion. The stock had already fallen 24% year-to-date and slipped a further 9% in the wake of the earnings release.
On the headline numbers, Robinhood reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.67, beating expectations by 6%. For the full year, EPS totaled $2.12, exceeding consensus by 2%. Revenue for the quarter, however, missed estimates by 4%, a shortfall Bernstein said was attributable to weakness in the company's cryptocurrency business - an outcome the firm had anticipated.
Not all metrics were negative. Robinhood's prediction markets reached a new milestone, delivering $435 million in annual recurring revenue. Other user and product indicators also improved, with funded accounts, Gold subscribers, and Gold card activations all hitting record levels in the period.
Bernstein interprets the recent price action as an opportunity to accumulate shares in the $60 to $75 range. The firm expects the crypto-related headwinds to be temporary, projecting the primary impact to fall in Q1 FY26 and forecasting a recovery beginning in Q2. Bernstein further projects that prediction markets could evolve into "a billion dollar annual business" for Robinhood by 2026.
Valuation metrics on the stock present a mixed picture. The company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.05. A reported PEG ratio of 0.12 suggests a relatively low valuation relative to growth expectations, but a separate Fair Value model cited in the report indicates the stock may be overvalued at current levels.
Other sell-side reactions to the quarter varied. Barclays lowered its price target to $124, citing softer-than-expected results stemming from lower take rates in options and cryptocurrency trading that reduced transaction revenues. Piper Sandler trimmed its target to $135 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Compass Point reduced its target to $127, pointing to an adjusted EBITDA shortfall influenced by decreased securities lending revenue and lower take rates in particular trading segments.
Needham also reduced its price target to $100, even as it characterized the results as strong and noted record January volumes in prediction markets. Citizens reiterated its Market Outperform rating and left a $180 price target in place.
In addition to the previously noted EPS beat, another figure cited for the fourth quarter was an EPS of $0.66 in fourth-quarter 2025 reporting, which slightly surpassed Citizens’ estimate of $0.65 and the consensus forecast of $0.64. Overall, however, the company missed analyst expectations for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA in that reporting cycle.
Bernstein’s stance emphasizes the firm’s view that the crypto slump is a near-term, recoverable issue, while highlighting the potential upside from expanding prediction-market revenue and continued growth in other customer metrics. The broader analyst community responded with a mix of lowered targets and maintained positive ratings, reflecting divergent views on near-term pressures versus longer-term opportunity.
Market context: The report underscores tension between product-level growth in prediction markets and subscriber metrics, and variable transaction revenues tied to options and crypto take rates. Equity investors and market participants focused on fintech, retail brokerage economics, and cryptocurrency trading volumes are most directly affected by the data and analyst reactions.