Analyst update and valuation
Bernstein has reiterated an Outperform recommendation on Airbnb Inc. and maintained a price target of $162.00. That target equates to an approximate 32% upside from a price of $122.89, and it exceeds a broader analyst consensus that implies about a 24% potential upside. Market data in the reporting period indicate Airbnb is trading below its assessed Fair Value, signaling potential room for price appreciation.
Quarterly performance and operational metrics
The firm characterized Airbnb’s fourth-quarter results as "a clean, solid figure-skating routine," pointing to nights booked that rose 10%, which beat expectations by 3 percentage points. Bernstein noted gross booking growth has more than doubled since the first quarter and that growth accelerated to a 5% gain on a two-year stack versus the third quarter. Those trends contribute to Airbnb’s 83% gross profit margin, a strength highlighted in the company’s research commentary.
Airbnb’s guidance aligned with key internal benchmarks and showed stable margins. Bernstein suggested that reported guidance could conservatively understate potential margin improvement by more than 50 basis points when typical company conservatism is considered. For the first quarter, Airbnb projected 15% revenue growth, which would be its fastest quarterly growth pace in two years; that projection compares with 10.2% revenue growth over the last twelve months and approaches the company’s five-year compound annual growth rate of 18%.
Cash generation and returns
Free cash flow remained robust, measuring 107% of EBITDA and indicating no material deterioration despite a strategic shift toward Reserve-Now-Pay-Later options. Over the last twelve months, this equates to $4.59 billion in levered free cash flow and a Cash Return on Invested Capital of 42%.
CEO Brian Chesky addressed concerns about potential disruption from artificial intelligence, emphasizing that Airbnb’s ecosystem of host tools, reviews, payments, consumer protections and product specialization provide insulating advantages.
A detailed Pro Research report covering these financial insights is available through the company’s subscription research offering.
Product development and growth drivers
Bernstein observed that recent growth has been driven primarily by core product improvements and a strong events calendar rather than headline-grabbing innovation or new AI product launches. Despite the absence of major new-product announcements, the firm retained a favorable stance, describing Airbnb as "one AI dip we’d buy" and valuing the company at 18.5 times fiscal 2027 EPS on an assumption of 30% EPS growth in fiscal 2026.
At present, Airbnb trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.7 times and shows a low PEG ratio of 0.56, metrics Bernstein interprets as potential undervaluation relative to the company’s growth outlook.
Recent quarterly results and other analyst action
Airbnb’s fourth-quarter results for 2025 presented a mixed picture. The company missed on earnings per share, reporting $0.56 against an expected $0.66, a shortfall of 15.15%. Revenue, however, topped expectations, with $2.8 billion reported versus $2.71 billion anticipated, a positive surprise of 2.58%.
Separately, Evercore ISI upgraded the stock from In Line to Outperform, citing improvements in product offerings as a rationale. Evercore ISI set a $145.00 price target and referenced the company’s "Beat & Largely Raise Q4 results" as the basis for increasing its estimates.
Conclusion
Bernstein’s renewed Outperform rating rests on a combination of stronger booking trends, healthy margin profiles, rapid cash generation and conservative guidance that may understate near-term margin improvement. The firm acknowledges limited new AI-related product announcements but nonetheless retains a positive view on the company’s earnings trajectory and valuation multiples.