Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

Bernstein Sticks With Market Perform on PayPal as Buyout Buzz Persists

Analyst keeps $45 target while takeover interest and asset-level valuations rise in focus

By Priya Menon PYPL
Bernstein Sticks With Market Perform on PayPal as Buyout Buzz Persists
PYPL

Bernstein SocGen Group maintained a Market Perform rating and a $45 price target on PayPal Holdings Inc. following media reports that the company has drawn takeover interest. The firm highlighted sum-of-the-parts valuation prospects for PayPal's businesses after a steep share-price decline, while other analysts and corporate developments have added to investor attention.

Key Points

  • Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed a Market Perform rating and a $45 price target on PayPal while noting sum-of-the-parts valuation potential for Braintree, Venmo, and core PayPal.
  • Media reports indicate PayPal has been approached by potential buyers and has held meetings with banks; interested parties are weighing either the whole company or specific assets.
  • PayPal's sizable operational footprint - 231 million monthly active users, 67 million Venmo users, about 90% online merchant reach, and $1.8 trillion in annual volumes - underpins strategic interest and sector valuation comparisons.

Bernstein SocGen Group has reaffirmed a Market Perform rating and a $45.00 price target on PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) amid reports that potential acquirers have shown interest in the payments company.

According to media accounts, PayPal has been approached by suitors after a notable fall in its stock, and the company has held meetings with banks while receiving unsolicited inquiries. Reports indicate that at least one competitor is considering an acquisition of PayPal in its entirety, while others are focusing on particular assets. PayPal has not issued a comment on the matter.

Valuation view from Bernstein

Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat noted that the current share price opens the door for a sum-of-the-parts valuation. Using Friday's closing price as the reference point, the firm's internal valuation ranges were cited as follows: Braintree valued at $10 billion to $15 billion, Venmo at around $5 billion, and core PayPal - which includes the buy-now-pay-later and lending businesses - at $20 billion to $25 billion.

Those segment-level estimates were presented in the context of a broader market reassessment of the company. Shares have declined 37% over the past six months, driving traditional multiples lower - the stock now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.09 and a PEG ratio of 0.22, figures cited in analysis accompanying the report.

Market and analyst reactions

The market response to takeover speculation has rippled across the payments and fintech space. Wolfe Research maintained a Peerperform rating for PayPal and observed that the stock is trading at roughly seven times its 2027 earnings per share estimate. In contrast, Mizuho kept an Outperform rating with a $60 price target.

Reports of potential acquisition interest also affected peers: Affirm Holdings and Block registered smaller share declines after the news surfaced, reflecting how takeover chatter for a major payments platform can influence valuations within the sector.

Operational footprint and business scale

PayPal operates at scale, reporting 231 million monthly active users overall, of which approximately 67 million are Venmo users - a figure representing about 20% of the U.S. population as cited in company metrics. The platform reaches roughly 90% of online merchants and processes about $1.8 trillion in annual volumes, figures that underline the company's merchant penetration and transaction flow.

Partnerships and strategic moves

Separately, PayPal disclosed a partnership with OLB Group Inc. under which OLB will integrate PayPal branded checkout services, including Venmo, into its platforms to enhance merchant payment options. That commercial agreement drew investor attention and reportedly led to a substantial increase in OLB Group's share price.

Takeaway

The combination of a sharp decline in PayPal's share price, reported takeover inquiries, and visible asset-level valuations has kept the company squarely in investors' crosshairs. Bernstein's Market Perform stance and the firm's sum-of-the-parts valuation range underscore the ongoing debate over whether the market is accurately reflecting PayPal's mix of businesses and cash-flow potential.


Note: The company has not provided a public comment on reported takeover interest. Valuation ranges referenced above reflect Bernstein's estimates based on the cited closing price.

Risks

  • Takeover uncertainty - unsolicited interest and meetings with banks create ambiguity about potential transaction outcomes and timing, affecting the payments and fintech sectors.
  • Valuation volatility - a 37% share-price decline over six months and low headline multiples could prompt further market re-pricing, impacting investor sentiment across e-commerce and merchant services.
  • Asset-level fragmentation - suitors targeting specific assets rather than the whole company could complicate strategic execution and influence the competitive dynamics in payments and lending.

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